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I know a strange topic, but last week prior to the Chargers/Seahawks game, my friend told me the Chargers were going to cover. He even said, it was a worthwhile risk to take the Chargers to win. He is a professional gambler, it's his only source of income and he does pretty well (self proclaimed 70-75%). He makes his picks based on observation of which teams get most heavily bet on.
He says the picks he is the most confident in, is when the betting public goes very heavy on a team (ie Seattle), but the point spread moves in the opposite direction than what it should logically. When this happens, it encourages more people to bet on the heavy side. Thus the sportsbooks make the most money in these upset situations, because they win the heavy side of a lopsided line.
Not every week will my friend see this happen, but he tells me to expect the Chargers to lose in Buffalo this week by at least 3, most likely 6-7pts. The line opened up at +0 for the Chargers and now has moved to +2.5 for the Chargers. Yet, most of the money bet is on the Chargers. Since that is the case, the line should've moved to perhaps -1 or -1.5 for the Chargers, and it hasn't. I can see his logic, and it doesn't make sense for the sportsbooks to do this, unless they do know something.
I don't know if the sportsbooks actually can manipulate games, but it was clear the NBA ref Donaghy was fixing games for someone (for a long time) when he was caught.
The Chargers really need to win this game and they should win this game. But it appears we may be fighting more than just the Bills this weekend. Possibly the refs, etc as well.
Fortunately, my friend is not always right, so I hope this week is where he gets it wrong. He actually has a lot of parleys with Mississippi St and/or the Bills this weekend.
In any case, the Chargers need this win. I hope McCoy doesn't play a tight game, let's get a Charger blowout win for once! Go Chargers!
He says the picks he is the most confident in, is when the betting public goes very heavy on a team (ie Seattle), but the point spread moves in the opposite direction than what it should logically. When this happens, it encourages more people to bet on the heavy side. Thus the sportsbooks make the most money in these upset situations, because they win the heavy side of a lopsided line.
Not every week will my friend see this happen, but he tells me to expect the Chargers to lose in Buffalo this week by at least 3, most likely 6-7pts. The line opened up at +0 for the Chargers and now has moved to +2.5 for the Chargers. Yet, most of the money bet is on the Chargers. Since that is the case, the line should've moved to perhaps -1 or -1.5 for the Chargers, and it hasn't. I can see his logic, and it doesn't make sense for the sportsbooks to do this, unless they do know something.
I don't know if the sportsbooks actually can manipulate games, but it was clear the NBA ref Donaghy was fixing games for someone (for a long time) when he was caught.
The Chargers really need to win this game and they should win this game. But it appears we may be fighting more than just the Bills this weekend. Possibly the refs, etc as well.
Fortunately, my friend is not always right, so I hope this week is where he gets it wrong. He actually has a lot of parleys with Mississippi St and/or the Bills this weekend.
In any case, the Chargers need this win. I hope McCoy doesn't play a tight game, let's get a Charger blowout win for once! Go Chargers!
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