Do You Want The Chargers To Tank For Draft Position, or Win The Next Two Games?

[PhilaBoltster]

Let’s say we play a game with a dice. If it’s a 1 or a 2 then you win. If it’s 3-6 then I win.

We roll it 10 times and we each win 5 games.

So both sides have equal value?

[Bolt4Knob]

Since we don't know ahead of time what kind of player selection 4-6 versus selection 8 will be it makes no sense to say it's greater or worse. Again I have to repeat. Selecting
4-6 versus 8 give you a better chance of getting the player you WANT. Your example doesn't make sense because Pitts was taken as BPA available for need. I have not looked at the
draft for that year. But it's possible there was a better player @13 than Slater. But you see we needed an OT and he was the best available at that position. And by the way your
example that you give for pro-bowlers is also flawed for picks 1-4. That's because QBs are taken at the very top and some bust others just turn out OK.

I brought the idea of trading down because it is a possibility. We have many needs. So in that case drafting 4-6 > 8th. We already established that I hope.

The decision to trade down would be made before the draft begins OR you miss on the player you want (say we draft 6th not 4th) Your now making up stories about draft day.

The progress of a couple of players has nothing to do with losing out. As I wrote the guys on the field that day may be playing for their jobs and anybody on the field is going
to want to win. The perspective of the owners, GM, fans are quite different than the coaches and players. From a fans perspective this game means nothing in terms of W-L.
We watch to see how the players do. W or L means shit. But for the future a loss is better than a win. Whether is works out that way through the draft is a very different story.

We are in a better position to get the players we want OR to get more value out of the draft if we lose this game. And the future is all about the draft.

I agree with both of these observations. Yes, the players who play the game should be doing their best - not only game day but on the practice field this week. The coaches coaching them should not be updating their resume instead of watching film - they should be preparing to play their best

That said, like you said, end of the day, the best thing for the Chargers is to finish with the highest draft pick as possible at this point. One spot in the draft could be a big deal

[charger1_sj]

[QUOTE=DerwinBosa;n1604726]

1. Correct if you drafting 4-6 you will have a better chance of getting the player you want versus drafting 8-10. You just made my point. Will get to "tanking" later.

Picking 4th or 5th is improbable
Picking 8th or after is impossible
A win next week means we will draft 6th or 7th
A loss, 5th or 6th[/QUOTE]

LOL. All of this discussion, when we could be drafting sixth whether we win or lose.

If we win and the Jets lose we would probably draft 8th. It's not impossible. If fact that's what will happen assuming the Titans lose.
If Arizona wins and we lose we would draft 5th.
Drafting 4th is very improbable as too many games have to go our way, but it's a remote possibility.

The most likely outcome is that we draft 6th. But it's not written is stone just yet.
If both the Jets and Chargers win we would draft 7th.

So the possibilities are anywhere from 4th (less likely) to 8th (possible, but not most likely)

[Bolt4Knob]

[QUOTE=charger1_sj;n1605042]

If we win and the Jets lose we would probably draft 8th. It's not impossible. If fact that's what will happen assuming the Titans lose.
If Arizona wins and we lose we would draft 5th.
Drafting 4th is very improbable as too many games have to go our way, but it's a remote possibility.

The most likely outcome is that we draft 6th. But it's not written is stone just yet.
If both the Jets and Chargers win we would draft 7th.

So the possibilities are anywhere from 4th (less likely) to 8th (possible, but not most likely)

So say the following happens - long shots I know but
Giants win
Titans win
Jets win
Cardinals win
Chargers lose

Would the Chargers get to the 4th spot?

I think going from 6th to 8 would be a kick in the nuts

[charger1_sj]

[QUOTE=Bolt4Knob;n1605149]

So say the following happens - long shots I know but
Giants win
Titans win
Jets win
Cardinals win
Chargers lose

Would the Chargers get to the 4th spot?

I think going from 6th to 8 would be a kick in the nuts

Jets already have 6 wins. So if we lose they are not in the picture.

If the Giants and Arizona both win and we lose then we probably get the 4th spot.
But the above scenario depends on the Titans. If they win we are in. If they lose
it comes down to SOS. It's pretty close. If SOS is tied we win the 4th spot assuming the rest.

Titans are playing the Jags who are 9-7. KC is 10-6. SOS right now favors us .526 to .529. But not sure
how that pans out if both the Titans and Chargers lose.

[DerwinBosa]

Since we don't know ahead of time what kind of player selection 4-6 versus selection 8 will be it makes no sense to say it's greater or worse. Again I have to repeat. Selecting
4-6 versus 8 give you a better chance of getting the player you WANT. Your example doesn't make sense because Pitts was taken as BPA available for need. I have not looked at the
draft for that year. But it's possible there was a better player @13 than Slater. But you see we needed an OT and he was the best available at that position. And by the way your
example that you give for pro-bowlers is also flawed for picks 1-4. That's because QBs are taken at the very top and some bust others just turn out OK.

I brought the idea of trading down because it is a possibility. We have many needs. So in that case drafting 4-6 > 8th. We already established that I hope.

The decision to trade down would be made before the draft begins OR you miss on the player you want (say we draft 6th not 4th) Your now making up stories about draft day.

The progress of a couple of players has nothing to do with losing out. As I wrote the guys on the field that day may be playing for their jobs and anybody on the field is going
to want to win. The perspective of the owners, GM, fans are quite different than the coaches and players. From a fans perspective this game means nothing in terms of W-L.
We watch to see how the players do. W or L means shit. But for the future a loss is better than a win. Whether is works out that way through the draft is a very different story.

We are in a better position to get the players we want OR to get more value out of the draft if we lose this game. And the future is all about the draft.

That is what I have been saying the entire time. LOL. We don't know ahead of time what kind of player the fourth, fifth, or sixth player taken will be versus the eighth, and with what I showed above with the selections since 2013, I don't concern myself with rooting for a higher pick over the current players on the team performing well because history has shown that having even a top three pick oftentimes doesn't lead to getting a better player than even the 13th pick.

When we hire a new coach, hopefully Harbaugh, he's going to watch film of the last game of the season. I guarantee he will want to see more good players on the team he can work with playing well and the eighth pick in the draft over a team full of scrubs playing like garbage and a pick between fourth and sixth.

[Bolt4Knob]

That is what I have been saying the entire time. LOL. We don't know ahead of time what kind of player the fourth, fifth, or sixth player taken will be versus the eighth, and with what I showed above with the selections since 2013, I don't concern myself with rooting for a higher pick over the current players on the team performing well because history has shown that having even a top three pick oftentimes doesn't lead to getting a better player than even the 13th pick.

When we hire a new coach, hopefully Harbaugh, he's going to watch film of the last game of the season. I guarantee he will want to see more good players on the team he can work with playing well and the eighth pick in the draft over a team full of scrubs playing like garbage and a pick between fourth and sixth.

I don't think one game will matter actuallyu

Its like Shrager on GMFB yesterday saying "McVay and Shanahan don't want to show either team anything in this Sundays games in case they play again in the playoffs"

Well aside from the fact the Rams and Niners already have 16 games this year of tape plus history --not sure it matters. Granted, neither coach is going to break out anything new but that would be the case if they weren't playing each other
I thikn there is a lot of game film - I think its more important to see JT Woods, Spiller and young players get snaps than to truly see if Rashawn Slater plays hard tomorrow and they win the game

[charger1_sj]

That is what I have been saying the entire time. LOL. We don't know ahead of time what kind of player the fourth, fifth, or sixth player taken will be versus the eighth, and with what I showed above with the selections since 2013, I don't concern myself with rooting for a higher pick over the current players on the team performing well because history has shown that having even a top three pick oftentimes doesn't lead to getting a better player than even the 13th pick.

When we hire a new coach, hopefully Harbaugh, he's going to watch film of the last game of the season. I guarantee he will want to see more good players on the team he can work with playing well and the eighth pick in the draft over a team full of scrubs playing like garbage and a pick between fourth and sixth.

There is better value and a better chance at getting the player you want @4-6 then there is at @8. You evaluation of picks 1-3 for 2013 has no value for the up coming draft.
Every draft is different and as I said QBs normally go in those spots and they don't always work out. Overall if you look at the history the players taken at the top work out the best.
That doesn't mean you won't ever find a Brady in the later rounds.

There is a big difference between drafting 4th versus 8th. 6th versus 8th the gap narrows. I'll give you an example for this year. This is of course hypothetical.
Suppose we want Harrison Jr. He's the top rated WR in the draft and considered a generational pick. Now whether that turns our to be true of not is a different matter,
which goes to your argument. However that's the WR everybody wants. There is almost no chance he will last to #8. But because of the perceived value of drafting
a franchise QB he may drop to #4 or perhaps #5. No chance he lasts to #8. So IF that's they we want then we are better off losing the game as that gives us a better
shot @4.

The other reason is draft value. #4 is worth 1800, number 8 1400. The 400 point difference represents a 2nd rounder. That's significant. So IF we decide to trade down
we would be in a better position to draft @ #4. There is also the possibility that a QB somebody wants is there a 4-6, they'll pay much more to get him.

So while nobody knows the final outcome of what the players taken will be (that's called the future), there is no question drafting higher gives you better opportunity.

[gzubeck]

The 8th pick is good enough for us this year. If we needed a QB the 4th pick would be a higher necessity. I'm just happy we are drafting top ten in each round. This makes a big difference and I'm happy for that. KC is resting a lot of players and we may field goal our way to victory alone. LOL!

[AFboltfan]

I'm ok with 4th thru 8th... If its 4th maybe we can get MHjr, if its 5th or 6th maybe Bowers, 7th or 8th I'm taking Kool Aid.

[jamrock]

Adam Schefter tweet:

January 8, 2023: The Texans beat the Colts in Week 18, causing them to drop from the No. 1 pick to No. 2.

January 6, 2024: The Texans beat the Colts in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth, with their No. 2 overall pick quarterback leading the way.

[northerner]

Adam Schefter tweet:

January 8, 2023: The Texans beat the Colts in Week 18, causing them to drop from the No. 1 pick to No. 2.

January 6, 2024: The Texans beat the Colts in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth, with their No. 2 overall pick quarterback leading the way.

we can turn this thing around next year too. go bolts.