QB Clutch - Eye Test and media narratives vs Stat Head

[BigBad]

Since the media keeps making everything about QBs and killing Herbert lately. I thought I'd look at some CLUTCH scenarios using Stathead for Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, and Allen.




Scenario 1
Given the ball with

• 4 minutes or less - also filtered out the starting drive with at least 30 seconds because that's almost impossible
• Down between 4 and 8 points (Need a TD to win or tie)

NFL Average(2001-2023)
26.7% TOUCHDOWN
26.0% Turnover on downs
24.6% Interception
10.8% End of Game


Herbert - 5 Times
W/L 1-4

Touchdown 2 40.0%
Interception 2 40.0%
Fumble(k.Allen) 1 20.0%
All Turnovers 3 60.0%
All Scores 2 40.0%


Burrow - 2 times
W/L 0-2

Touchdown 2 100.0% - LOST BOTH GMAES!!!!!
All Turnovers 0 0.0%
All Scores 2 100.0%

Mahomes - 6 Times - 3 of them vs Chargers
W/L 2-5

Touchdown 3 50.0% - 2 of these vs Chargers
End of Game 1 16.7%
Interception 1 16.7%
Downs 1 16.7%


Allen - 4 times
W/L 0-4

Touchdown 0
Interception 3 75.0%
Downs 1 25.0%


Scenario 2

Given the ball

• 4 minutes or less - also filtered out the starting drive with at least 30 seconds because that's almost impossible
• Down between 0 and 3 points (Need a FG to win or Tie)

NFL Average(2001-2023)

Field Goal 28.1%
Punt 16.8%
Interception 14.2%
Downs 10.3%
Missed FG 9.7%
Touchdown 8.7%


Herbert - 21 times in this situation in 18 games
W/L 11-10

Field Goal 5 23.8%
Downs 5 23.8%
Touchdown 4 19.0%
Interception 3 14.3%
Missed FG 2 9.5%
Punt 2 9.5%


Burrow -11 times in 11 games
W/L 2-8-1

Punt 5 45.5%
Field Goal 2 18.1%
Missed FG 2 18.1%
Fumble 1 9.01%
Touchdown 1 9.01%
Downs 1 9.01%

Mahomes - 11 times in 10 games
W/L 6-5

Interception 3 27.3%
Field Goal 2 18.2%
Touchdown 2 18.2%
Fumble 1 9.1%
Missed FG 1 9.1%
Punt 1 9.1%
Downs 1 9.1%


Allen - 11 times in 10 games
W/L 0-11 - WOW!!!

Field Goal 3 27.3%
Downs 3 27.3%
Interception 2 18.2%
Touchdown 1 9.1%
End of Game 1 9.1%
Missed FG 1 9.1%



Another Scenario I may look at is having the ball and a lead with 4 minutes left. But a lot of that really comes down to a running game and we all know how bad the Chargers running game has been in Heberts career.

Essentially all of this shows

1. How hard this is for EVERY QB.
2. How insane it is that Herbert has been in scenario 2 double the number of times Mahomes and Allen have and has played two fewer years!

[el_jefe999]

Excellent work! It's only because Herbert is in so damn many of these situations that it seems like he is unable to win close games. I think there is a thread to pull here about his play outside of these situations and it's impact on resulting on being behind late but the tale of him not being clutch is bogus and debunked.

[northerner]

if we are going by the eye test - i think Herber is a lot better than people are giving him credit for. a few factors going off memory:

1. in this first year or two, he went to MW a lot in the 2 minute drill (with great success). the raider game comeback was a work of art. this is a great luxury because MW's greatest attribute is winning a 50/50 ball even when covered. when MW is not healthy, which has been often, Herbert loses a major target for the 2-minute offense.

2. for the last year or two, it seems like there is a jail break blitz that gets through every fucking time we have a two-minute drive. almost without fail. this is the kind of the detail that the media guys are not going to see in the stat sheet.

3. Herbert got away from running a bit, probably due to injury, which is a major ace up his sleeve for two-minute drives. Herbert is running a LOT more lately, which is a good sign.

4. the defense sucks ass. look at the Detroit game - Herbert got out his superman cape after a weak first quarter, but the defense NEVER got a stop. (i think they punted once in the 3rd qtr).

I have Hebert as a top 5 QB. after Mahomes, i don't think i would trade Herbert for anyone else. Burrow is excellent but the injuries are piling up. guys like Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy are on super teams - a nice luxury. Tua is hot and cold, and again, the injuries are piling up. Josh Allen is also hot and cold, and is not as accurate as Herbert. what makes this sad is that we are 4-7.

[jubei]

4. the defense sucks ass. look at the Detroit game - Herbert got out his superman cape after a weak first quarter, but the defense NEVER got a stop. (i think they punted once in the 3rd qtr).

actually they scored on like 5 straight drives starting later in the 2nd qtr IIRC. but that was an INSANE game only to have his D COMPLETELY AND UTTERLY FAIL him! How can you score 38 freakin points, 100% TDs the last 5 drives, and STILL lose?! That IS in the history books...the only team to score 100% TDs in their last 5 drives and still lose. This team makes history in all the wrong ways.

[Maniaque 6]

You can keep BAL to 20 and still lose
if your offense is not there
SEA lost when they score 35 points for the 1st time since P. Caroll.
I think that's football.

[Boltjolt]

Mahomes has won 2 SBs so he isn't going to get shit on for it.

Allen, I ve no idea why he is held in such high regard. Because he plays in NY? He has made some big plays but is a turnover machine lately too.

[MagicMamba88]

thats going to keep being the narrative because hes one of the highest paid QBs.

and i gotta say i haven't been impressed with his play at all this season other then like 2 or 3 games at best.

don't know what happen but it looks like the team turn him into a one dimensional pocket passer.