Since the media keeps making everything about QBs and killing Herbert lately. I thought I'd look at some CLUTCH scenarios using Stathead for Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, and Allen.
Scenario 1
Given the ball with
NFL Average(2001-2023)
26.7% TOUCHDOWN
26.0% Turnover on downs
24.6% Interception
10.8% End of Game
Herbert - 5 Times
W/L 1-4
Touchdown 2 40.0%
Interception 2 40.0%
Fumble(k.Allen) 1 20.0%
All Turnovers 3 60.0%
All Scores 2 40.0%
Burrow - 2 times
W/L 0-2
Touchdown 2 100.0% - LOST BOTH GMAES!!!!!
All Turnovers 0 0.0%
All Scores 2 100.0%
Mahomes - 6 Times - 3 of them vs Chargers
W/L 2-5
Touchdown 3 50.0% - 2 of these vs Chargers
End of Game 1 16.7%
Interception 1 16.7%
Downs 1 16.7%
Allen - 4 times
W/L 0-4
Touchdown 0
Interception 3 75.0%
Downs 1 25.0%
Scenario 2
Given the ball
NFL Average(2001-2023)
Field Goal 28.1%
Punt 16.8%
Interception 14.2%
Downs 10.3%
Missed FG 9.7%
Touchdown 8.7%
Herbert - 21 times in this situation in 18 games
W/L 11-10
Field Goal 5 23.8%
Downs 5 23.8%
Touchdown 4 19.0%
Interception 3 14.3%
Missed FG 2 9.5%
Punt 2 9.5%
Burrow -11 times in 11 games
W/L 2-8-1
Punt 5 45.5%
Field Goal 2 18.1%
Missed FG 2 18.1%
Fumble 1 9.01%
Touchdown 1 9.01%
Downs 1 9.01%
Mahomes - 11 times in 10 games
W/L 6-5
Interception 3 27.3%
Field Goal 2 18.2%
Touchdown 2 18.2%
Fumble 1 9.1%
Missed FG 1 9.1%
Punt 1 9.1%
Downs 1 9.1%
Allen - 11 times in 10 games
W/L 0-11 - WOW!!!
Field Goal 3 27.3%
Downs 3 27.3%
Interception 2 18.2%
Touchdown 1 9.1%
End of Game 1 9.1%
Missed FG 1 9.1%
Another Scenario I may look at is having the ball and a lead with 4 minutes left. But a lot of that really comes down to a running game and we all know how bad the Chargers running game has been in Heberts career.
Essentially all of this shows
Scenario 1
Given the ball with
- 4 minutes or less - also filtered out the starting drive with at least 30 seconds because that's almost impossible
- Down between 4 and 8 points (Need a TD to win or tie)
NFL Average(2001-2023)
26.7% TOUCHDOWN
26.0% Turnover on downs
24.6% Interception
10.8% End of Game
Herbert - 5 Times
W/L 1-4
Touchdown 2 40.0%
Interception 2 40.0%
Fumble(k.Allen) 1 20.0%
All Turnovers 3 60.0%
All Scores 2 40.0%
Burrow - 2 times
W/L 0-2
Touchdown 2 100.0% - LOST BOTH GMAES!!!!!
All Turnovers 0 0.0%
All Scores 2 100.0%
Mahomes - 6 Times - 3 of them vs Chargers
W/L 2-5
Touchdown 3 50.0% - 2 of these vs Chargers
End of Game 1 16.7%
Interception 1 16.7%
Downs 1 16.7%
Allen - 4 times
W/L 0-4
Touchdown 0
Interception 3 75.0%
Downs 1 25.0%
Scenario 2
Given the ball
- 4 minutes or less - also filtered out the starting drive with at least 30 seconds because that's almost impossible
- Down between 0 and 3 points (Need a FG to win or Tie)
NFL Average(2001-2023)
Field Goal 28.1%
Punt 16.8%
Interception 14.2%
Downs 10.3%
Missed FG 9.7%
Touchdown 8.7%
Herbert - 21 times in this situation in 18 games
W/L 11-10
Field Goal 5 23.8%
Downs 5 23.8%
Touchdown 4 19.0%
Interception 3 14.3%
Missed FG 2 9.5%
Punt 2 9.5%
Burrow -11 times in 11 games
W/L 2-8-1
Punt 5 45.5%
Field Goal 2 18.1%
Missed FG 2 18.1%
Fumble 1 9.01%
Touchdown 1 9.01%
Downs 1 9.01%
Mahomes - 11 times in 10 games
W/L 6-5
Interception 3 27.3%
Field Goal 2 18.2%
Touchdown 2 18.2%
Fumble 1 9.1%
Missed FG 1 9.1%
Punt 1 9.1%
Downs 1 9.1%
Allen - 11 times in 10 games
W/L 0-11 - WOW!!!
Field Goal 3 27.3%
Downs 3 27.3%
Interception 2 18.2%
Touchdown 1 9.1%
End of Game 1 9.1%
Missed FG 1 9.1%
Another Scenario I may look at is having the ball and a lead with 4 minutes left. But a lot of that really comes down to a running game and we all know how bad the Chargers running game has been in Heberts career.
Essentially all of this shows
- How hard this is for EVERY QB.
- How insane it is that Herbert has been in scenario 2 double the number of times Mahomes and Allen have and has played two fewer years!
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