2022 Official Chargers Season Discussion

[Xenos]

Here’s another one. Anyone below the dashed line had more interceptions than you would expected based on throws PFF graded as turnover worthy, or they were unlucky. Above the line were lucky to not have more INTs. Justin was a little unlucky.

[Heatmiser]

Thanks Xenos. You post and share great stuff and I like the analytics. But when I see Mahomes characterized as unlucky on his INT (if I am reading the representation correctly) if makes me scratch my head. I mean Mahomes is super lucky on so many throws and makes some real no-no, bonehead ones and this is the first year he actually suffered for it

[Boltnut]

I like what I saw from McDuffie. I also think that a really good RT will be there in the 2nd.
Now, in the first, what do you do if Karlaftis, Davis and McDuffie are there ?
What do you need the most to upgrade your rushing defense ? A CB, a DT or an Edge ?

Karlaftis is a better 4-3 DE in my eyes. Could he play OLB in a 3-4...? Yeah, probably. But what is it that Staley wants from his OLB opposite Bosa? In LAR, he wanted a guy that set the edge. Check... Karlaftis would definitely be good at that. He wants an OLB that can drop into coverage. Hard to tell how Karfaftis is at doing that. He didn't do it often at Purdue. So, I'll put him down as a maybe. And Staley wants a guy who can pass rush. Check, Karlaftis can do that (even though he only had 4.5 sacks in 2021). But all of those things can be done by Sam Williams (who I took in the 3rd round). I also believe that TT brings Nwosu back. Then the question is... do you sit your 1st round pick (Karlaftis) or do you sit your $9 million re-sign (Nwosu)...?

I'm passing on Davis @#17. He's a 2-down player that probably only sees the field 50% of the defensive snaps. Bengals and Rams both have mid-round draft picks (along with FA's) playing the IDL. I'd be going after Sebastian Joseph-Day in free agency (Staley familiarity) and get a later round pick for depth. I don't believe we need 1st round talent @IDL (Tillery should convince us of that). Give me guys who can play their role correctly... and some better depth.

That leaves our biggest hole at slot corner (NFL teams are now in nickel or dime 85-90% of all defensive snaps). And I want a slot corner good enough/versatile enough to take over outside duties should ASJ get concussed again. McDuffie is that guy.

[Xenos]

Thanks Xenos. You post and share great stuff and I like the analytics. But when I see Mahomes characterized as unlucky on his INT (if I am reading the representation correctly) if makes me scratch my head. I mean Mahomes is super lucky on so many throws and makes some real no-no, bonehead ones and this is the first year he actually suffered for it

It’s based off of PFF’s analysis so I’m sure it’s not perfect. But it would be hilarious if this was the year Mahomes was better at throwing the ball and it ended up suffering for it. Almost like karma.

[equivocation]

Karlaftis is a better 4-3 DE in my eyes. Could he play OLB in a 3-4...? Yeah, probably. But what is it that Staley wants from his OLB opposite Bosa? In LAR, he wanted a guy that set the edge. Check... Karlaftis would definitely be good at that. He wants an OLB that can drop into coverage. Hard to tell how Karfaftis is at doing that. He didn't do it often at Purdue. So, I'll put him down as a maybe. And Staley wants a guy who can pass rush. Check, Karlaftis can do that (even though he only had 4.5 sacks in 2021). But all of those things can be done by Sam Williams (who I took in the 3rd round). I also believe that TT brings Nwosu back. Then the question is... do you sit your 1st round pick (Karlaftis) or do you sit your $9 million re-sign (Nwosu)...?

I'm passing on Davis @#17. He's a 2-down player that probably only sees the field 50% of the defensive snaps. Bengals and Rams both have mid-round draft picks (along with FA's) playing the IDL. I'd be going after Sebastian Joseph-Day in free agency (Staley familiarity) and get a later round pick for depth. I don't believe we need 1st round talent @IDL (Tillery should convince us of that). Give me guys who can play their role correctly... and some better depth.

That leaves our biggest hole at slot corner (NFL teams are now in nickel or dime 85-90% of all defensive snaps). And I want a slot corner good enough/versatile enough to take over outside duties should ASJ get concussed again. McDuffie is that guy.

Davis played 30% of snaps the last 2 years. Hard to see his snap count going up in the NFL.

[Maniaque 6]

Karlaftis is a better 4-3 DE in my eyes. Could he play OLB in a 3-4...? Yeah, probably. But what is it that Staley wants from his OLB opposite Bosa? In LAR, he wanted a guy that set the edge. Check... Karlaftis would definitely be good at that. He wants an OLB that can drop into coverage. Hard to tell how Karfaftis is at doing that. He didn't do it often at Purdue. So, I'll put him down as a maybe. And Staley wants a guy who can pass rush. Check, Karlaftis can do that (even though he only had 4.5 sacks in 2021). But all of those things can be done by Sam Williams (who I took in the 3rd round). I also believe that TT brings Nwosu back. Then the question is... do you sit your 1st round pick (Karlaftis) or do you sit your $9 million re-sign (Nwosu)...?

I'm passing on Davis @#17. He's a 2-down player that probably only sees the field 50% of the defensive snaps. Bengals and Rams both have mid-round draft picks (along with FA's) playing the IDL. I'd be going after Sebastian Joseph-Day in free agency (Staley familiarity) and get a later round pick for depth. I don't believe we need 1st round talent @IDL (Tillery should convince us of that). Give me guys who can play their role correctly... and some better depth.

That leaves our biggest hole at slot corner (NFL teams are now in nickel or dime 85-90% of all defensive snaps). And I want a slot corner good enough/versatile enough to take over outside duties should ASJ get concussed again. McDuffie is that guy.

It's an excellent argument !

Go for Karlaftis or McDuffie in 1st
I think 2nd is the ideal spot this year for RT
A DE/OLB or a CB in the 3rd
DT at 4th and on FA
I think it would be a very good beginning.

[Boltnut]

Solid, well thought-out.
did you have the first 16 picks mocked out to base this off from? If so, interested to see.

No, not really. McDuffie always seems to be there when I use a simulator. The few times he's already gone, I end up taking another guy I like a lot, too... Roger McCreary. I guess I just believe that a Staley-type CB is essential. Staley thought so, too. He brought in ex-Bronco, Chris Harris Jr, to play the slot. Super important to have CB's that can tackle. McDuffie and McCreary do that well. They're both very tough and competitive.

I know that Davis is a favorite here. He's a mountain that can anchor a DL. And I know that the run defense must get better.
When Staley first got here, I started studying his LAR defense. He had stars there no doubt. But I started watching some of his less-known defensive starters... Sebastian Joseph-Day, Troy Reader, Kenny Young, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Justin Hollins, Greg Gaines... These guys do so many un-heralded things. I think we need some guys like that. I believe that the run defense will get better when people start doing the un-heralded things... stars and non-stars alike.

[Boltnut]

It's an excellent argument !

Go for Karlaftis or McDuffie in 1st
I think 2nd is the ideal spot this year for RT
A DE/OLB or a CB in the 3rd
DT at 4th and on FA
I think it would be a very good beginning.

Which CB(s) do you like in the 3rd...?

[Xenos]

No, not really. McDuffie always seems to be there when I use a simulator. The few times he's already gone, I end up taking another guy I like a lot, too... Roger McCreary. I guess I just believe that a Staley-type CB is essential. Staley thought so, too. He brought in ex-Bronco, Chris Harris Jr, to play the slot. Super important to have CB's that can tackle. McDuffie and McCreary do that well. They're both very tough and competitive.

I know that Davis is a favorite here. He's a mountain that can anchor a DL. And I know that the run defense must get better.
When Staley first got here, I started studying his LAR defense. He had stars there no doubt. But I started watching some of his less-known defensive starters... Sebastian Joseph-Day, Troy Reader, Kenny Young, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Justin Hollins, Greg Gaines... These guys do so many un-heralded things. I think we need some guys like that. I believe that the run defense will get better when people start doing the un-heralded things... stars and non-stars alike.

Just a minor correction but Harris was already here when Staley became HC.

And I agree about getting the players who can do the unheralded things. Guys like 2012 Jarrett Johnson.

[Boltnut]

Davis played 30% of snaps the last 2 years. Hard to see his snap count going up in the NFL.

Well, even more reason not to draft him @#17.

[Boltnut]

Just a minor correction but Harris was already here when Staley became HC.

And I agree about getting the players who can do the unheralded things. Guys like 2012 Jarrett Johnson.

LOL! You're right. My bad. Still, need a good slot. And Jarrett Johnson was solid. Nice call.

[wu-dai clan]

I want to do a lot of in house signing. It is believed that almost all want to stay here and play with Justin Herbert. Let's make a deal.

In light of this, here's my wu's bargain UFAs. Control your excitement. We are building depth and shoring up weaknesses, for the tough '22 schedule.

--Joe Noteboom OL Rams.
--Vernon Butler DT Bills.
--Anthony Averett CB Ravens.
The price is right.

I will do a long winded roster build post later.