2020 TPB Member’s And Pundits Mock Drafts

[Steve]

serious question here.
if he can't block, what makes him a tight end?
the routes he is asked to run?
the blocking assignments?
because he looks like he might just BE a big WR and may have been playing out of position.
I don't see a tight end at all personally.

3 things.
1) The routes he would be asked to run - there are going to be some tight cuts that he simply won't be able to do effectively - big guys have a harder time making all the cuts that smaller guys do - simple physics

2). The blocking assignments - you can manage the blocking assignments by alignment - He is never going to develop as an inline TE, but that doesn't mean he can't be an effective wingback who seals the outside edge vs SS or smallish LB

3) The mismatch factor - play a guy like a WR, they defend him like a WR, and I don' think a guy who couldn't catch on initially is going to get open very often vs #1 through 3 CB in the NFL. But put him vs a LB or dime S for most teams, then it is going to be a lot easier to get him open.

Players can learn new skills. They do practice for a reason. Just because a player can't do something now doesn't mean they can't learn how. He is going to have to learn to be a better route runner. He is going to have to learn an NFL playbook (bigger, more complicated) than anything he has ever learned. Antonio Gates develop quite a bit as a blocker over the course of his career. He was pretty poor initially, and yet he threw the inside block that broke several long runs the last 2 years he played.

[wu-dai clan]

I think one can reasonably argue that Mike Williams has slightly underperformed for a player selected at #7 overall. It is not that he has not been a good player because he has been and he has the potential to be even better, but I think that the reasonable expectation for a player selected #7 overall is for him to be a great player, not just a good player. He should be an elite WR and his team's clear #1 receiving option.

I do not think it is fair to expect him to be Calvin Johnson, but it would not be unfair to expect him to have something resembling Mike Evans type production. Evans was selected with the 7th pick in the 2014 draft.

Sure...fair enough.

Evans is one of the best players in the league though.

Let's not forget that @darealmike_dub played through injury in 2019.

[dmac_bolt]

CAREER HIGHLIGHTS

• Named AFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 15 of 2018 for a performance that included two receiving touchdowns and 76 receiving yards on seven catches (10.9 avg.) while adding a 19-yard rushing touchdown and catching the game-winning two-point conversion with less than 10 seconds remaining.
• In 2018, had 10 receiving scores and one rushing touchdown to become the first Chargers WR since Tony Martin in 1996 to have 10 scrimmage touchdowns in a single season.
• Posted 11 scrimmage touchdowns last year, tied with Houston WR DeAndre Hopkins for the fourth-most scrimmage scores among NFL WRs in 2018.
• Recorded seven catches for 110 yards (15.7 avg.) in two postseason starts in 2018.
• On his first career receiving score in 2018, became the 37th player to haul in a touchdown from QB Philip Rivers.
• Was on the receiving end of Rivers' 3,989th completion as a rookie in 2017 to push the QB past Hall of Fame QB Warren Moon for eighth on the all-time completions list.

It's starting to look like a 7th overall pick !

First off, not directed at you, but this MW Ain;’t Worth $16M back and forth thing has gotten very repetitive, glad its fading finally. I like him. I don’t have to worry about his value this year or next, so I’ll give him a season to show what he grows into. Maybe its just me if so - sorry and carry on.

Second - thats a weak list. #2 and #3 seem like the same stat (11 TDs in 2018). The last 2 aren’t even his, they are PR stats lol. Odd it doesn’t include his 1000 yard season so who knows what else is missing. But thats not a $16M list

[Steve]

I'm not sure who thinks Mike Williams is worth $16 mill a year? While Mike Williams and his agent may desire $16 mil per season, he is certainly not performing at the level of the other $16 mil per season WR, at least not as of (April 18th , 2020).

Here is the over the cap list of top WR salaries from top down. If you use the Over the cap Market value approximation, they say he is worth about $10 mill and Sportrac estimates at $12.7 mill. I think both of these features is based more on compariable production, but I am not sure how much they factor inflation into it. No player is going to sign to be even with comparable players, with the cap always going up, the next guy gets a bit more. Think of it as the percentage of the cap stays the same, so their value goes up as the cap does.

In either case, he isn't worth $16 mil, and it really isn't that close. If one of our receivers is worth $16 mil, it is Kennan Allen, and that is within a mil of what Over the cap values him at. Sporttrac doesn't give a FA value for him.



wr comps.png

https://overthecap.com/player/mike-williams/5591/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-chargers/mike-williams-21748/market-value/

https://overthecap.com/player/keenan-allen/2227/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-chargers/keenan-allen-12357/

[21&500]

I think the argument will be that on a team without Allen, Williams is capable of producing like a $16/year guy.

I fully expect his agent to make us chose between the two. And I don’t see KA taking a home town discount UNLESS there is a real chance to win here.

[Boltjolt]

I'm not sure who thinks Mike Williams is worth $16 mill a year? While Mike Williams and his agent may desire $16 mil per season, he is certainly not performing at the level of the other $16 mil per season WR, at least not as of (April 18th , 2020).

Here is the over the cap list of top WR salaries from top down. If you use the Over the cap Market value approximation, they say he is worth about $10 mill and Sportrac estimates at $12.7 mill. I think both of these features is based more on compariable production, but I am not sure how much they factor inflation into it. No player is going to sign to be even with comparable players, with the cap always going up, the next guy gets a bit more. Think of it as the percentage of the cap stays the same, so their value goes up as the cap does.

In either case, he isn't worth $16 mil, and it really isn't that close. If one of our receivers is worth $16 mil, it is Kennan Allen, and that is within a mil of what Over the cap values him at. Sporttrac doesn't give a FA value for him.



wr comps.png

https://overthecap.com/player/mike-williams/5591/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-ange.../market-value/

https://overthecap.com/player/keenan-allen/2227/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-ange...n-allen-12357/

I think the mentioned 16 mil is near where his 5th year option will be at but before they get to that point, id think they would try and work out a long term deal. I think his market will be worth 12-13 per. Just dont know if they want to pay both MW and Keenan who may command 16-17.....AND Henry as well who im thinking will get 8-10.

[Steve]

I don't see IWilliams as being there yet. Right now, he is a jump ball, and big play outside guy.

He needs to take some shorter, easier throws and be able to turn them into plays.

To be a true go to player, he has to do better on short and intermediate routes.

I KNOW he has the athletic ability to do this. He flashes it. But he is no longer a prospect, he actually has to start doing it. He needs to improve his hands and his route running, just like Kennan did.

It is also worth remembering that Kennan is still on the right side of 30, so it is not like it is the time to start looking somewhere else for another receiver just yet. We should be able to get 1 more decent contract out of him.

[Steve]

I think the mentioned 16 mil is near where his 5th year option will be at but before they get to that point, id think they would try and work out a long term deal. I think his market will be worth 12-13 per. Just dont know if they want to pay both MW and Keenan who may command 16-17.....AND Henry as well who im thinking will get 8-10.

I looked it up, and the estimate right now is $14 mill. Plus, we don't necessarily have to pay him that, if like I pointed out, the market value is well below that. We can try and sign him to an extension instead, or simply walk away because he has not played up to his value. I think you will see more teams doing that, since the new CBA is going to make the salaries fully guaranteed for the 5th year options, which is a lot more restrictive than the old CBA was (only guaranteed vs injury).

https://www.latimes.com/sports/charg...what-hes-doing

A lot will depend on who/what/where and how's of the QB situation. No sense paying millions for WR who are going to be standing ideal with a run first offense that cannot throw the ball downfield.

[gzubeck]

I'm not sure who thinks Mike Williams is worth $16 mill a year? While Mike Williams and his agent may desire $16 mil per season, he is certainly not performing at the level of the other $16 mil per season WR, at least not as of (April 18th , 2020).

Here is the over the cap list of top WR salaries from top down. If you use the Over the cap Market value approximation, they say he is worth about $10 mill and Sportrac estimates at $12.7 mill. I think both of these features is based more on compariable production, but I am not sure how much they factor inflation into it. No player is going to sign to be even with comparable players, with the cap always going up, the next guy gets a bit more. Think of it as the percentage of the cap stays the same, so their value goes up as the cap does.

In either case, he isn't worth $16 mil, and it really isn't that close. If one of our receivers is worth $16 mil, it is Kennan Allen, and that is within a mil of what Over the cap values him at. Sporttrac doesn't give a FA value for him.



wr comps.png

https://overthecap.com/player/mike-williams/5591/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-chargers/mike-williams-21748/market-value/

https://overthecap.com/player/keenan-allen/2227/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-ange...n-allen-12357/

No...what I'm saying is that without a signed contract extension they will have to pay him $16 million due to his draft slot status for the fifth year. It's always been up to chargers and Mike Williams to come up with a fair long term deal. I have no idea what's going on in his head and he might be fine with a reasonable deal. But at the end of the season a deal must be done or other plans made.

[Formula 21]

I think one can reasonably argue that Mike Williams has slightly underperformed for a player selected at #7 overall. It is not that he has not been a good player because he has been and he has the potential to be even better, but I think that the reasonable expectation for a player selected #7 overall is for him to be a great player, not just a good player. He should be an elite WR and his team's clear #1 receiving option.

I do not think it is fair to expect him to be Calvin Johnson, but it would not be unfair to expect him to have something resembling Mike Evans type production. Evans was selected with the 7th pick in the 2014 draft.

I think fans expectations for players drafted in the 1st are too high. Most of them become solid, above average, players, just not stars.

[Formula 21]

A lot of player production comes from team dynamics. Cleveland made OBJ disappear.

[Boltgang74]

I think fans expectations for players drafted in the 1st are too high. Most of them become solid, above average, players, just not stars.

What about a player picked in the top ten?