2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[La Costa Boy]

So say the Jags reach out for 6, We get 9, their number 2 and what a 4th or 5th? Then the Falcons reach out and they want 9, get another 2 and a 3? A 2 and another 4? We would get at 16 a very capable player, even a nice Derwinesque faller. Then you have 3 second round picks semi clustered in a target rich environment. Tommy T could make some hay. 6 players in the first 3 rounds.

Oh the possibilities.........Glad it's only a week away now.

[like54ninjas]

So say the Jags reach out for 6, We get 9, their number 2 and what a 4th or 5th? Then the Falcons reach out and they want 9, get another 2 and a 3? A 2 and another 4? We would get at 16 a very capable player, even a nice Derwinesque faller. Then you have 3 second round picks semi clustered in a target rich environment. Tommy T could make some hay. 6 players in the first 3 rounds.

Oh the possibilities.........Glad it's only a week away now.

Interesting scenario. I may play with that some with prospects.

[21&500]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...ve-for-covid19

... and with the 52nd overall pick, the LA Rams select, Lloyd Cushenberry III LSU

[Shumway]

I did some research last week for OT's (last 10 years) and this is what I found...

OT's drafted in the 1st round with pff grades over 70... 70% of them.
OT's drafted in 2nd-7th round with pff grades over 70... only 6% of them.

OT performance after the 1st round falls off pretty quickly.

I didn't include 2019 OT's because of injury and limited play (Williams, Dillard, Howard, McGary). Ultimately, I think McGary slides inside to OG. 2019 nfl draft may be a class where the early 2nd round OT's (Taylor, Little, Ford) turn out to be better than some of the 1st round OT's (Howard, McGary). I had Howard and McGary graded as OG's...

Nutty, do you have the data behind those stats? It'd be interesting to see it with a bit more granularity - i.e. broken down into more groups 1st Round, 2nd-3rd Round, 4th-5th Round, 6-7th Round. I'd be interested to see if there is a steep decline from 1st round to 2nd round. Or whether you still have a reasonable shot a a good OT in round 2 and maybe 3. There seem to be quite a lot of tackle prospects slated for Round 2 this year. I wouldn't advocate waiting until later rounds to draft a tackle, but what do the stats say about targeting Round 2 and 3?

[21&500]

I'm enjoying reading all of the comments/insight from everyone about what Telesco should do with the first round pick, and I believe this team is very close to being a dominant defense. Adding Simmons would be key to making that happen. As much as I'd like to add Simmons to the defense, I feel that adding Tua as the future starting QB would be much more impactful to the long term success of this team. I get the concern with the injury history, but I'd roll the dice on him. His potential is immense, he's a leader, he makes good decisions, he doesn't get rattled, he's accurate, his arm is plenty strong enough, he's coachable, he's confident but not cocky, etc, etc. The negative is the injuries.

Bill Walsh believed that you can't teach accuracy. I buy what Walsh said. For that reason and I don't see Herbert as a big time leader, I pass on Herbert.

The OL would still need to be improved for Tua, no doubt. I'd look to add OL, WR, CB, RB, and/or DL/pass rush with the remaining picks. I think a UDFA or FA RB could also be added, and the team has been successful in finding them.

If neither Tua nor Simmons were available at 6, I'd like OL or DL Brown or a trade back to get more picks.

your loyalty shall be rewarded
conversely, Tua non-believers will be penalized.

[Boltgang74]

your loyalty shall be rewarded
conversely, Tua non-believers will be penalized.

Gettin kinda "Freak"y in here.

[Boltnut]

Nutty, do you have the data behind those stats? It'd be interesting to see it with a bit more granularity - i.e. broken down into more groups 1st Round, 2nd-3rd Round, 4th-5th Round, 6-7th Round. I'd be interested to see if there is a steep decline from 1st round to 2nd round. Or whether you still have a reasonable shot a a good OT in round 2 and maybe 3. There seem to be quite a lot of tackle prospects slated for Round 2 this year. I wouldn't advocate waiting until later rounds to draft a tackle, but what do the stats say about targeting Round 2 and 3?

Using NFL Draft History (http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...=round1#round1) and this years pff scores. It's lengthy but I could list 1st/2nd/3rd round OT's for several years to give you an idea... I didn't use last year's draft because it's inconclusive (Williams and Dillard barely played. Howard played half a season. McGrary is probably a guard)

2018 (1st): McGlinchey (67.5), Miller (64.9), Wynn (69.9)
2018 (2nd): O'neil (70.8)
2018 (3rd): Parker (39.2), Christian (63.0), Brown Jr. (71.5), Noteboom (39.7), Okorafor (58.3), Cappa (62.7 as a guard).

2017 (1st): Bolles (75.9), Ramczyk (90.9)
2017 (2nd): Robinson (54.8), Dawkins (73.3)
2017 (3rd): Garcia (DNP)

2016 (1st): Stanley (87.2), Conklin (77.9), Tunsil (75.8), Decker (75.5)
2016 (2nd): Spriggs (DNP)
2016 (3rd): Coleman (DNP), Clark (DNP)

I won't post more (you can use the link above) but you get the idea. The numbers get much worse in 4th-7th rounds.

!st round OT's: 6 out of 9 have pff grades over 70 (and McGlinchey had a 70+ his first year. Wynn had a 69.9). 67%
2nd round OT's: 2 out of 4 have pff grades over 70 (and O'niel was below that the year before). 50%
3rd round OT's: 1 out of 8 have pff grades over 70 (I thought OBJ was a 1st rounder). 12.5%

[Lone Bolt]

So say the Jags reach out for 6, We get 9, their number 2 and what a 4th or 5th? Then the Falcons reach out and they want 9, get another 2 and a 3? A 2 and another 4? We would get at 16 a very capable player, even a nice Derwinesque faller. Then you have 3 second round picks semi clustered in a target rich environment. Tommy T could make some hay. 6 players in the first 3 rounds.

Oh the possibilities.........Glad it's only a week away now.

We could afford to take Fromm and Eason....and they could have a rematch!!

I jest...

[La Costa Boy]

We could afford to take Fromm and Eason....and they could have a rematch!!

I jest...

So glad you jest......................

[Bolt4Knob]

So say the Jags reach out for 6, We get 9, their number 2 and what a 4th or 5th? Then the Falcons reach out and they want 9, get another 2 and a 3? A 2 and another 4? We would get at 16 a very capable player, even a nice Derwinesque faller. Then you have 3 second round picks semi clustered in a target rich environment. Tommy T could make some hay. 6 players in the first 3 rounds.

Oh the possibilities.........Glad it's only a week away now.

On my run this morning - plenty of time to think about things and this is something I thought of. The idea of going from 6 to 16 seems like a bit much. But maybe the Jags move to pick 6. So the Bolts are at 9. Than you can see what AZ and Carolina do (probably Brown and Wirfs, maybe Simmons but that would mean the Chargers passed on Simmons - don't like that) - but so at 9, they see the board and can determine - we can get to 16.

Jags trade: doing the chart it would be something like 3 and 5; though a second would be nice
Falcons trade: maybe the pick at 9 plus the Jags 5th rounder for Atlantas 1, 2 and 4

I am a bit more conservative - meaning not getting second round picks in each trade

I might be open to that if Simmons is gone. Chargers would have 16, two seconds, two thirds and two fourths . Herbert or WR at 16 and just get talent in rounds 2-4

[Guest]

Simmons or Brown at 6 and this D is more than capable of being top 5 barring injuries, and with the weapons on offense this team even with Tyrod I believe can reach the Super Bowl. Trent Dilfer got a ring, becuase of the Ravens D, Flacco got a ring because of the Raven's D, and Sheli Manning got 2 rings because of the D, Brad Johnson for Tampa Bay got a ring because of the D. Tyrod is no superstar or top 10 QB, but none of the guys I mentioned that got a ring were either.

I do not see Taylor as being anything like Flacco. Flacco has major arm strength, but he is not always all that accurate. If he gets hot, though, in terms of a run of temporary good accuracy, he has always had the arm to make big time throws.

The Ravens won their Super Bowl with Flacco because after they were given a generous spot following 4th and 29 and won that game, which allowed them to make the playoffs, Flacco had a very strong postseason which included him posting a QB rating during the playoffs that was more than 30 points above his career average. During their 4 playoff games, he threw 11 TDs and 0 INTs and he completed a 70 yard TD pass to Jacoby Jones with less than a minute to play to tie a game at 35 that they were about to lose in Denver.

I agree that Eli Manning, Johnson and Dilfer all got their rings because of great defense. Eli Manning in particular has been way too much credit for his team's success in their Super Bowl wins. Those teams made the playoffs in spite of Eli's performance and they won the first of the two Super Bowls in spite of Manning playing horribly through three quarters.

[Topcat]

Cheatriots may lose draft picks due to Bengals Spygate:

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https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/patriots-latest-scandal-could-mess-up-plans-for-nfl-draft-2020/