2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[Boltnut]

given that over the course of the draft, that the bust rate for OL is prolly seventysomething percent.... how many of those guys do you think are gonna pan out ??

ditto for your 40 WRs w/draftable grades ??

I did some research last week for OT's (last 10 years) and this is what I found...

OT's drafted in the 1st round with pff grades over 70... 70% of them.
OT's drafted in 2nd-7th round with pff grades over 70... only 6% of them.

OT performance after the 1st round falls off pretty quickly.

I didn't include 2019 OT's because of injury and limited play (Williams, Dillard, Howard, McGary). Ultimately, I think McGary slides inside to OG. 2019 nfl draft may be a class where the early 2nd round OT's (Taylor, Little, Ford) turn out to be better than some of the 1st round OT's (Howard, McGary). I had Howard and McGary graded as OG's...

[Lone Bolt]

Interesting that no one has brought up the UDFA part of the draft( okay, I know it's not part of the actual draft but it takes place IMMEDIATELY after the draft ends)
I think it was Jeremiah ( or was it Schefter?) that brought up the logistical nightmare of trying to contact all the different players teams want, without the braintrust being in one location.
We as Charger fans know all to well the importance of UDFA's. We'll really have to be on the ball this year if we hope to find another diamond in the rough.

I don't understand the difficulty. You have a list of lower tier players you like before the draft. You cross off names if they are drafted, and when the draft ends, you start calling the names on the list. You could have 10 guys, each with a portion of the list, (LBs, CBs, OGs, etc.) on conference call through the whole process, each with another individual phone they are contacting players with, and reporting results of calls to TT...and he can make adjustments on the fly. For example "Alright, that's enough RBs, lets concentrate on the other positions."

10 people, 10 laptops on zoom like conference call, 10 cell phones, and a white board in TT's basement. Jeebus, it could work like those virtual classrooms they are doing all over the country. If college kids can manage, I'll bet an NFL staff can.

[Formula 21]

I don't understand the difficulty. You have a list of lower tier players you like before the draft. You cross off names if they are drafted, and when the draft ends, you start calling the names on the list. You could have 10 guys, each with a portion of the list, (LBs, CBs, OGs, etc.) on conference call through the whole process, each with another individual phone they are contacting players with, and reporting results of calls to TT...and he can make adjustments on the fly. For example "Alright, that's enough RBs, lets concentrate on the other positions."

10 people, 10 laptops on zoom like conference call, 10 cell phones, and a white board in TT's basement. Jeebus, it could work like those virtual classrooms they are doing all over the country. If college kids can manage, I'll bet an NFL staff can.

Im sure the UDFAs know who are interested in them before the draft starts. And know what their preferred teams are.

[blueman]

I think Hurts is more than slightly better than Stick but it dont mean i want to use a first round pick on him. As much as you rag on this QB class, its still a better class than last years. I do think with some pine time behind Tyrod and coaching that Herbert can be fixed with his accuracy issues. Tua's fragile body cant be fixed and Love i think is most likely to bust. They are way over hyping him.

Burrow i think is going to be good but out of the gate he will probably struggle like many rookie QB's do that start year 1, so that wont be a surprise. Peyton Manning threw 28 INTs as a rookie and only completed 56%. Too bad he will end up a Bengal.

Herbert will never be fixed, book it. It’s mental.

[Steve]

Kinlaw, a #2 EDGE prospect; Chaisson for me, and not only 2 but 3 OT/OL prospects are top 10 possibilities.
Love the draft and how different teams have different evaluations.

Kinlaw is a 3 tech, not an edge.

[sonorajim]

I did some research last week for OT's (last 10 years) and this is what I found...

OT's drafted in the 1st round with pff grades over 70... 70% of them.
OT's drafted in 2nd-7th round with pff grades over 70... only 6% of them.

OT performance after the 1st round falls off pretty quickly.

I didn't include 2019 OT's because of injury and limited play (Williams, Dillard, Howard, McGary). Ultimately, I think McGary slides inside to OG. 2019 nfl draft may be a class where the early 2nd round OT's (Taylor, Little, Ford) turn out to be better than some of the 1st round OT's (Howard, McGary). I had Howard and McGary graded as OG's...

Draft teams know something about their job and know that good OTs are a valued commodity. Roughly 60% of all starting OTs are taken in the 1st (@40%), 2nd (@20%) rds. There are just so many to go around and the more obvious the talent, the more likely to be selected early. It's a simple fact.
This is a good year to get lucky, OT depth is very good but odds still lie with an early pick, earliest is best. Quality starters have been found all the way down to UDFA - BUT they are the exception and few in numbers at that level historically.

[Attack]

I'm enjoying reading all of the comments/insight from everyone about what Telesco should do with the first round pick, and I believe this team is very close to being a dominant defense. Adding Simmons would be key to making that happen. As much as I'd like to add Simmons to the defense, I feel that adding Tua as the future starting QB would be much more impactful to the long term success of this team. I get the concern with the injury history, but I'd roll the dice on him. His potential is immense, he's a leader, he makes good decisions, he doesn't get rattled, he's accurate, his arm is plenty strong enough, he's coachable, he's confident but not cocky, etc, etc. The negative is the injuries.

Bill Walsh believed that you can't teach accuracy. I buy what Walsh said. For that reason and I don't see Herbert as a big time leader, I pass on Herbert.

The OL would still need to be improved for Tua, no doubt. I'd look to add OL, WR, CB, RB, and/or DL/pass rush with the remaining picks. I think a UDFA or FA RB could also be added, and the team has been successful in finding them.

If neither Tua nor Simmons were available at 6, I'd like OL or DL Brown or a trade back to get more picks.

[like54ninjas]

#4 Giants: RT Wills
#6 Chargers: LT Thomas
#8 Cardinals: RT Wirfs
#10 Browns: LT Becton

#15/16 Broncos/Falcons RT Josh Jones
#18 Dolphins: RT Austin Jackson

Jones and Jackson are RT-only in my estimation. And I have them as 2nd round prospects. But bad teams are desperate for OT help and will overdraft in mid/late 1st round. In the 2nd round, you'll have a bunch of 3rd round OT's...

Doubt that 4 go top 10 but 15-18 certainly. 5-8 OL prospects sounds about right for round 1. We grade prospects differently as I have some OT prospects that won’t be taken round 1.

[like54ninjas]

given that over the course of the draft, that the bust rate for OL is prolly seventysomething percent.... how many of those guys do you think are gonna pan out ??

ditto for your 40 WRs w/draftable grades ??

I have draftable grades on those I listed. My confidence in their success is proportional to the rating grade I gave them. Will some not pan out? Sure.

[like54ninjas]

Interesting that no one has brought up the UDFA part of the draft( okay, I know it's not part of the actual draft but it takes place IMMEDIATELY after the draft ends)
I think it was Jeremiah ( or was it Schefter?) that brought up the logistical nightmare of trying to contact all the different players teams want, without the braintrust being in one location.
We as Charger fans know all to well the importance of UDFA's. We'll really have to be on the ball this year if we hope to find another diamond in the rough.

Look at my roster build/draft posts. I take some guts who will likely be UDFAs.

[La Costa Boy]

I don't understand the difficulty. You have a list of lower tier players you like before the draft. You cross off names if they are drafted, and when the draft ends, you start calling the names on the list. You could have 10 guys, each with a portion of the list, (LBs, CBs, OGs, etc.) on conference call through the whole process, each with another individual phone they are contacting players with, and reporting results of calls to TT...and he can make adjustments on the fly. For example "Alright, that's enough RBs, lets concentrate on the other positions."

10 people, 10 laptops on zoom like conference call, 10 cell phones, and a white board in TT's basement. Jeebus, it could work like those virtual classrooms they are doing all over the country. If college kids can manage, I'll bet an NFL staff can.

Any team worth a shit will have this all worked out already before the draft. I am sure the Chargers have plenty of guys with assignments to track and call UDFA's the moment the draft is over. It is one of the things the Chargers do well historically TBT. I would volunteer to be the guy to ring up Rodrigo Blankenship if he is un drafted. He will be the steal of the UDFA;s out there.

[like54ninjas]

Kinlaw is a 3 tech, not an edge.

Kinlaw is a 0/1/3. ChaIsson is my #2 EDGE prospect.