2014 Official Draft Thread

[Yubaking]

A bad argument requires many words.

What's tge standard deviation on 4.6 vs 4.3? Answer: not much. Our 'soft' D was at parity with the 'Steel Cutain.'

As for the one year/down year argument: thats the problem with making broad, sweeping generalizations-- it only takes one exception to foil the whole house of cards.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled diatribes.

Your critical reasoning is lacking here. If I were to have told you in March of 1979 that Jim Palmer was a great pitcher over the past decade worthy of emulating, would you have responded with, "Gee, he wasn't so good in 1974. He only had 7 wins and 12 losses that year"? And would you have said so despite his 8 20 win seasons and a 16-4 season in that 10 year period? With the Steelers positing the #1 ranked defense 5 times (I was mistaken, it was only 5 times, not 6), #2 once, #4 once, #5 once and #9 once, your argument is just about that bad.

One contrary example does not repudiate the general proposition. Ridiculous. Ali was a great boxer despite losing a few fights. The few losses do not render him not a great boxer.

I will let you run the standard deviation analysis if you want. I do not think it matters at all in terms of what I am trying to say except that it does support another argument I am making, which is that having a good NT matters. Amazingly, the Steelers run defense experienced a downward turn when they no longer had Hampton just as ours did when we no longer had Jamal or even Franklin. At some point, maybe someone will realize that that is not really a coincidence.

[Panama]

Now, as I explained before, here is why I think we did have a marginal improvement at the end of last year. 1) Our best run defender, Johnson, returned to the lineup. 2) Our arguably second best run defender, Ingram, returned from being injured all year long. 3) Our next best run defender, Lissemore, became a starter. Rookies stepped up their games some too--Te'o and Addae. I do not think it had much, if anything, to do with any improvement from Liuget and Reyes.

But this doesn't tell us why Liuget and Reyes began playing better -- and if you look at the film, Reyes and Liuget were playing better.

I do not disagree that adding Ingram, JJ, Butler, and Te'o helped. But why? You haven't answered that question. In fact, unless I'm misreading you, you think they continued to suck while the pieces around them improved, which doesn't jive with what my own eyes saw. My answer to why is something I harped on all year: with so many holes, players were overcompensating to cover them. Weddle was less effective because he was doing everything. The defense as a whole was less effective because Pagano had to generate pressure with creative blitzing constantly instead of using the blitz selectively. And, to the point at hand, Liuget and Reyes were shooting in gaps and then being shooed out of the way; later in the season, they began playing with more discipline and were improved. Yes, this coincided with the return to health of various players, but that alone does not explain the why.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

If a bad argument is many words, who has the higher word per post count???

We can now put a statistic to some posting trends that should accuratly tell us who is full of shit, only without having to read all os said posters shit only to learn to late...


Serious, Yubba. Go ease on Steve he actualy has experience with football beyong the armchair and all your arguing is not enlightening or entertaining.

[Yubaking]

{yawn}

Throwing more stats and words at your argument doesn't make it more valid. Talk till you're blue in the face, but you're still ignoring Steve's point. Never mind whether you agree or not, you're not even in the same ballpark.

Stats can be useful for explaining the state of something. For example, they can tell you that we gave up 4.6 yards per carry, or that x player did y z% of the time, etc. But they cannot, must not, be used to explain why something is. I'm no statistician, but I don't believe it works that way. Therefore, the argument that "we give up 4.6 yards per carry because the stats of certain players aren't good" is specious. Better to look at why those stats aren't good and not simply make assumptions about them. Steve has consistently asked you to gather empirical evidence, to look at the play of the players in question, because he feels certain that anyone who does so will see what he is describing. Yet it appears you're not doing this. You stick to your hypothesis without testing it against the evidence when the evidence might suggest your hypothesis needs tweaking. Certainly, your hypothesis does not adequately explain the improved play in stretches of the defense. The reasons you offer are circular. Yet you cling to them with religious zeal. Perhaps it is your background as a lawyer that comes into play here: you feel it is more important to win your argument than it is to uncover the truth. Well, we get tired of that schtick pretty quickly.

Panama, I believe I have the truth. I think our players lack the physicality needed to play our defense effectively as a group and that an improvement must be made in that respect. I have said this all along.

I have responded to Steve's totally unsupported assertion repeatedly by stating 1) that's not what I saw when I watched the games--I saw our guys getting beat physically all the time (especially in short yardage situations); 2) his technique/mental mistake analysis is not only not what I saw, but not likely to be as much of a factor with players that are entering their third and 4th years in the league (unless they are uncoachable/completely mentally deficient); 3) the minor improvements made by the defense as a whole late in the season were not improvements by Liuget and Reyes as much as defensive improvements in other areas; and 4) even if Steve is correct about the poor performance of Reyes and Liuget being because of technique and/or mental mistakes more so than a lack of physicality, at some point, after enough years (whether now or after one more year), I really don't care because these players are proving time and again that they just can't get it right (for whatever reason).

As it turns out, I will guarantee you that Steve is dead wrong about one thing. If the players can't get it right after having had ample opportunity to do so, the result is just about all that does matter. 4.6 YPC against is unacceptable and they will be replaced if they cannot get it right, whether that happens now or a year or two from now. Their clock is ticking and it is time for them to put up or shut up.

[Yubaking]

If a bad argument is many words, who has the higher word per post count???

We can now put a statistic to some posting trends that should accuratly tell us who is full of shit, only without having to read all os said posters shit only to learn to late...


Serious, Yubba. Go ease on Steve he actualy has experience with football beyong the armchair and all your arguing is not enlightening or entertaining.

Stinky, what do you want me to say? I have eyes. He could have a thousand years of playing experience. I have been watching football for nearly 40 years and can recognize when players are getting physically dominated. What he says happened isn't what I saw and it isn't what I would expect to see consistently from players that are not rookies. Even if it were 100% a technique thing, which I do not think it is, if it is so easily corrected, why hasn't it been corrected? Either Steve's theory is wrong or our players are not coachable if you follow his logic.

I think our guys are coachable and are trying their best, but they are not brutes. They are skill/finesse type players of which we have too many. We need more brutes for better defensive balance.

[Panama]

At some point, maybe someone will realize that that is not really a coincidence.

Or maybe you'll realize that it is? This is a different era. The game constantly evolves. I've always been a proponent of "you've gotta be strong up the middle," but in today's game, with offenses spreading the field horizontally and vertically, forcing defenses to play nickle and dime defenses a great majority of the time, your arguments don't hold water. They are yesterday's arguments.

Is the NT such an important ingredient in run defense in today's game? Then explain to me why Miami's defense was so mediocre despite getting good play from Soliai all season.

In our defense, the important things are that the D-linemen occupy blockers, allowing LBs to flow to the ball, and that players maintain assignments/keep contain. Yes, on run downs the DL will include a NT, but as soon as the nickle package comes in, that NT will come off. And in today's game, a great number of runs come against the nickle defense (when the NT is on the bench) in the form of stretch plays. If everyone keeps to their assignments, the run defense is effective -- even without an NT! -- but if they begin freelancing, they'll give up plays -- even if a stout NT is in the game!

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

The defensive personnel was much, much better against the run in 2012 and the stats fully support that conclusion. We lost Franklin, Spikes and Jammer, who were all good run defenders. The loss of Franklin was huge. The result was a drop off from #5 in YPC against to tied for #27 in YPC against with two other teams (even with the slightly improved play at the end of the season).

O.M.G.

That old chestnut?

It's like Week 2 all over again.

:fc:

[Yubaking]

But this doesn't tell us why Liuget and Reyes began playing better -- and if you look at the film, Reyes and Liuget were playing better.

I do not disagree that adding Ingram, JJ, Butler, and Te'o helped. But why? You haven't answered that question. In fact, unless I'm misreading you, you think they continued to suck while the pieces around them improved, which doesn't jive with what my own eyes saw. My answer to why is something I harped on all year: with so many holes, players were overcompensating to cover them. Weddle was less effective because he was doing everything. The defense as a whole was less effective because Pagano had to generate pressure with creative blitzing constantly instead of using the blitz selectively. And, to the point at hand, Liuget and Reyes were shooting in gaps and then being shooed out of the way; later in the season, they began playing with more discipline and were improved. Yes, this coincided with the return to health of various players, but that alone does not explain the why.

Our run defense got marginally better because our 3 best run defenders (JJ, Ingram, Lissemore) were finally on the field at the same time. I didn't see Liuget and Reyes improve their games significantly, so my look at it differs from yours. I would be willing to consider the PFF individual game grades for Liuget and Reyes if anyone has them. Did they continue be negative against the run? Did they come in at about zero? Did they come in at a positive number? The period I would consider is the Cincinnati game forward.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

Yubba, to me its what you convince yourself you saw then try and convince us what we saw, that gets you in trouble.

Your seeing the same game, but if you and Steve could sit down and watch them together ill wager, a different result would come of it. A better one. Fourty years of watching football doesnt tell me you ever knew what you were seeing like someone who coached, film studdied with the players, put a game plan together, ect...

[Guest]

Stinky, what do you want me to say? I have eyes. He could have a thousand years of playing experience. I have been watching football for nearly 40 years and can recognize when players are getting physically dominated. What he says happened isn't what I saw and it isn't what I would expect to see consistently from players that are not rookies. Even if it were 100% a technique thing, which I do not think it is, if it is so easily corrected, why hasn't it been corrected? Either Steve's theory is wrong or our players are not coachable if you follow his logic.

I think our guys are coachable and are trying their best, but they are not brutes. They are skill/finesse type players of which we have too many. We need more brutes for better defensive balance.

Hey, remember back when we told you that your opinion doesn't make you correct, and that you won't change anyone's mind no matter how many times you try to make the same point over and over? Because I remember that causing you some trouble on the forum.

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

Steve, Liuget just finished his third season and Reyes just finished his second. Neither was a rookie, so I am not sure when you expect this sudden transformation to take place in terms of technique and mental mistakes. They have each had multiple seasons and this is where they are. I am not here to say that they cannot improve at all. I think they can, but I think the amount of improvement to be expected from players is generally inversely proportional to their number of seasons in the league. I do not expect to see a sudden spike of improvement, but would love to be wrong about that.

So what do we have? Well, Reyes was the second worst run defender on the team (next to Te'o) per PFF. He has not really ever had any sustained success against the run. As a rookie, I thought he did show some flashes as a potentially above average pass rusher. So to me, it seems like Reyes is a poor run defender, but I think he has some pass rushing potential even though he really didn't do very at that either last year. To me, he seems like a player that is better suited to be brought in on pass rushing downs.

Liuget is better than Reyes overall, but was still rated as the 4th worst run defender on our team last year [B]per PFF[B]. He did have a significantly positive pass rushing rating. To me, he seemed pretty average, but slightly better against the pass than the run. What I saw and what the PFF numbers showed are in line with each other as a general proposition (I am not talking about a specific number, but a general overall impression here).

At the end of the day, I really do not care whether or not it is technique and/or mental mistakes if the players have shown that they cannot fix them. Just how many years of failure do you need to see to draw this conclusion?

To clarify further, nobody is suggesting getting rid of Reyes or Liuget. However, I do think you have consider upgrading the run defense when only two players on the entire roster rated above +3.0 in that category (Johnson, Lissemore) in PFF's system. In fairness, I think Ingram would have been rated higher against the run if he had had more snaps (he was +1.5). I love Lissemore's fight (+6.0 versus the run), but think he is ultimately undersized at NT and suspect increasing his exposure will diminish his effectiveness. I hope that he is able to get more snaps at DE. We could start him there over Reyes if we had a legitimate NT.

And nobody is suggesting that a rookie is going to come in and immediately dominate on the DL. I think we all know that that is rare when it happens. But I do think you are crazy if you think that we are just going to roll with the same guys that couldn't get it done last year against the run and that they will now suddenly get it done because they have suddenly figured things out. I would like us to add a good DL player to the mix to push Liuget and Reyes. Maybe that player does not have to be an early draft pick, but I think one positive aspect of landing a player like Tuitt or Hagemann would be that Liuget and Reyes would get the message that the team is not totally happy with their performance and that one highly drafted player is not going to start as a result. And Reyes was so bad last year that I am not totally convinced that Tuitt/Hagemann would lose the battle for the starting DE position opposite Liuget. It would be difficult to imagine either player being worse against the run than Reyes was last year, especially Hagemann.

This post is a real doozy. In Yubaworld two young defensive linemen with talent and upside are essentially worthless because they didn't play to expectations one year. In Yubaworld, said linemen are apparently incapable of significant improvement because they have three and two years' experience in the league and have not been very consistent at a position which is notorious for slow development (in the case of a late 1st and early second round pick). In Yubaworld said defensive lineman have shown that they cannot fix their mistakes. Also in Yubaworld it is totally fine to use PFF stats in one post and then denigrate PFF as a source for credible analysis in the next.

Only in TubbyTheTubaWorld.

[Yubaking]

Or maybe you'll realize that it is? This is a different era. The game constantly evolves. I've always been a proponent of "you've gotta be strong up the middle," but in today's game, with offenses spreading the field horizontally and vertically, forcing defenses to play nickle and dime defenses a great majority of the time, your arguments don't hold water. They are yesterday's arguments.

Is the NT such an important ingredient in run defense in today's game? Then explain to me why Miami's defense was so mediocre despite getting good play from Soliai all season.

In our defense, the important things are that the D-linemen occupy blockers, allowing LBs to flow to the ball, and that players maintain assignments/keep contain. Yes, on run downs the DL will include a NT, but as soon as the nickle package comes in, that NT will come off. And in today's game, a great number of runs come against the nickle defense (when the NT is on the bench) in the form of stretch plays. If everyone keeps to their assignments, the run defense is effective -- even without an NT! -- but if they begin freelancing, they'll give up plays -- even if a stout NT is in the game!

First, Maimi plays a 4-3, not a 3-4, which I believe is more suited to Soliai's game. He was good in the 4-3. I think he would be even better in the 3-4.

Second, Miami's struggles against the run have everything to do with their LBs. Just before their final game of the season against the Jets, Ellerbe their MLB, was ranked 54th out of 55 rated middle linebackers per PFF against the run and 53rd overall. Wheeler, their Sam linebacker, was rated #33 out of 34 OLBs rated against the run going into the Jets game. So despite the fact that Soliai, Starks, Vernon and Wake played well, their run defense suffered.

Finally, I have said it before and will say it again, our current NTs come off the field a lot. They wouldn't come off as much if we had a good one as other teams have repeatedly demonstrated with Poe, Ngata and even Raji in recent seasons playing a huge percentage (70%+) of their team's snaps.