And With The 5th Pick Of The NFL Draft Chargers Select....Discussion

[CanadianBoltFan]

Let’s look at this full circle. You have coaches who don’t give a fuck. You can act like Andy Reid is this big grandpa santa clause. But he would do it to win.

He signed Vick outa jail.

drafted Tyreke Hill after it was reported he kicked his pregnant girlfriend.

He drafted Kareem Hunt. So he will take a flagged player.

The commentary was sensational. So that’s how the chiefs got a hall of famer.

Id take a weed guy. It’s so overatted. Warren Sapp pot Randy Moss weed both hall of famers.

As for the tight ends. I never liked Tyler Eifert. I did think Kyle Rudolph was generational. He had it all. Route running skillset. He looked like Mark Bravado.

its funny tight ends stay around in the draft. Gronk had back problems at Arizona and got to the second round.

Don’t lie there weren’t a lot of yall who were high on Sam Laporta and he looks like the next Kelce. I saw his tape and said. He looks slippery. Hopefully we can trade back up and get him. When Detroit got him. I was like damn Detroit got a dude.

I was high on the raiders guy all y’all were. It wass was him or Kincaid. Doesn’t he look a little small in the NFL????

But Bowers is different. He looks generational. But he looks like one of the best players in the draft like he looks like Jamar Chase and he’s a tight end. He runs receiver routes and he’s a tight end. Look at his freshman stats. Shit I would debate him over Marvin Harrison jr.

And I was the guy who said I might like Jamar Guiybss more than Bijan Robinson and yall laughed at me. How that looking now Jamyr Gibbs is a better running back then Bijan Robinson.

I just like when I watch Bowers tape. He plays hard. He just looks so hyped. Like he plays hard that’s what players feed off of. When guys jump off tape you want them on your team.

Tony Gonzalez was bigger. This guy is more of a hybrid. See the kids started actually training to be more of a wide receiver so don’t get mad that Brock is top 5 he’s just a polished prospect.

Bowers is a weapon first... TE second, he is more than the average TE, he is versatile with more YAC than the average TE. Like a receiving weapon for Herbert that can block.

Sometimes when a special playmaker is sitting there and you have the rare opportunity to get him you have to act. Why the Lions didn't care about positional draft charts when they used the 12th pick on a RB. They saw a special playmaker in Gibbs that could elevate their offense and they grabbed him.

You cant fill every hole on the Chargers in one draft, it will take 2-3. There will be lots of OL and CBs to pick from the next couple of years. There are good ones in every single draft. There wont be another Brock Bowers.

[wu-dai clan]

I know you guys like your weapons.
Please marinate on Nabors-Sanders 1-2.

[Bolt4Knob]

Bowers is a weapon first... TE second, he is more than the average TE, he is versatile with more YAC than the average TE. Like a receiving weapon for Herbert that can block.

Sometimes when a special playmaker is sitting there and you have the rare opportunity to get him you have to act. Why the Lions didn't care about positional draft charts when they used the 12th pick on a RB. They saw a special playmaker in Gibbs that could elevate their offense and they grabbed him.

You cant fill every hole on the Chargers in one draft, it will take 2-3. There will be lots of OL and CBs to pick from the next couple of years. There are good ones in every single draft. There wont be another Brock Bowers.

Right! So if he is on the board and I am trading down
1) not going that far. I think MN at 11 is too far

2) the are going to have too overwhelm the Chargers

As I would be very comfortable just taking 19 and moving on

[eaterfan]

As good as Alt is...would a good/great RT be more transformative than what Bowers can bring at TE?

No doubt we can always use more help in the trenches. I would be happy with either pick.

Just thinking out loud - after 10 years, who do you think will have done more to help us win games? Obviously OL play is hard to quantify, I get it.

Once in a generation talent at TE or a very good RT? And I don't mean this as a knock on Alt, again I would be happy with either, just that Bowers to me feels more "special."

I think the point is that we're absolutely terrible at picking out generational TEs. Since 2000 every generational TE drafted hasn't been a needle mover. Not one has been someone to game plan against. The three "generational" TEs drafted since I started following the draft closely have been Winslow, Davis, and Pitts. Shockey and Hockenson were not far behind.

https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/gallery/nfl-draft-falcons-tight-end-kyle-pitts-hayden-hurst-atlanta/

Here's a list of every TE drafted in the 1st round from 2000-2021. This was the Pitts draft. If you want to update it to make it current go ahead. There are some good names on there, but you can get guys who are good TEs later in the draft. And several of the ones we'd call good players took several years to develop, so you have to pay them market rate by the time they contribute. WRs have been contributing much faster as of late.

If Bowers turns into a top 3 TE, doesn't have to be a HOF like Kelce, but let's say something like Mark Andrews or George Kittle, he's worth more than a mediocre RT. (We're all acting like any of the top 3 or 4 OTs can't exceed expectations, when they can, too.). But let's just assume they are average RTs in the NFL as you put it. What happens if we miss on the evaluation? What if Bowers instead of being a top 3 TE in the league is the 7th or 8th best TE in the league? That's still way better than most of these top 20 TEs have fared. What if Brock Bowers becomes Hunter Henry? You can get Hunter Henry in FA this year. You can get Dalton Schultz in FA this year. Spotrac estimates Schultz at $11.3 million and Henry at $7.5 AAV. The Chargers 1st round pick will have a cap hit of $5.8 million next year for comparison. A TE that you don't have to gameplan around just doesn't move the needle much. It's a position that is the hardest to evaluate and one you can't miss on the evaluation or you aren't getting good value. There are busts at every position, but the bust rate at TE is exceptionally high and the payoff for hitting 80% of projection just isn't very high. One of these days a "generational TE" will actually hit, but I'm not willing to gamble a top 5 pick on it.

Also, every time one of these generational TEs enters the draft we hear "he's not a TE, he's a weapon. This time will be different" and it never is. Lucy always pulls the football away.

[Boltx]

I think the point is that we're absolutely terrible at picking out generational TEs. Since 2000 every generational TE drafted hasn't been a needle mover. Not one has been someone to game plan against. The three "generational" TEs drafted since I started following the draft closely have been Winslow, Davis, and Pitts. Shockey and Hockenson were not far behind.

https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/gallery/nfl-draft-falcons-tight-end-kyle-pitts-hayden-hurst-atlanta/

Here's a list of every TE drafted in the 1st round from 2000-2021. This was the Pitts draft. If you want to update it to make it current go ahead. There are some good names on there, but you can get guys who are good TEs later in the draft.

If Bowers turns into a top 3 TE, doesn't have to be a HOF like Kelce, but let's say something like Mark Andrews or George Kittle, he's worth more than a mediocre RT. (We're all acting like any of the top 3 or 4 OTs can't exceed expectations, when they can, too.). But let's just assume they are average RTs in the NFL as you put it. What happens if we miss on the evaluation? What if Bowers instead of being a top 3 TE in the league is the 7th or 8th best TE in the league? That's still way better than most of these top 20 TEs have fared. What if Brock Bowers becomes Hunter Henry? You can get Hunter Henry in FA this year. You can get Dalton Schultz in FA this year. Spotrac estimates Schultz at $11.3 million and Henry at $7.5 AAV. The Chargers 1st round pick will have a cap hit of $5.8 million next year for comparison. A TE that you don't have to gameplan around just doesn't move the needle much. It's a position that is the hardest to evaluate and one you can't miss on the evaluation or you aren't getting good value. There are busts at every position, but the bust rate at TE is exceptionally high and the payoff for hitting 80% of projection just isn't very high. One of these days a "generational TE" will actually hit, but I'm not willing to gamble a top 5 pick on it.

Good analysis.

I'm good either way. We have the #5 pick for a reason. Let's just get someone impactful.

[CanadianBoltFan]

I think the point is that we're absolutely terrible at picking out generational TEs. Since 2000 every generational TE drafted hasn't been a needle mover. Not one has been someone to game plan against. The three "generational" TEs drafted since I started following the draft closely have been Winslow, Davis, and Pitts. Shockey and Hockenson were not far behind.

https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/gallery/nfl-draft-falcons-tight-end-kyle-pitts-hayden-hurst-atlanta/

Here's a list of every TE drafted in the 1st round from 2000-2021. This was the Pitts draft. If you want to update it to make it current go ahead. There are some good names on there, but you can get guys who are good TEs later in the draft.

If Bowers turns into a top 3 TE, doesn't have to be a HOF like Kelce, but let's say something like Mark Andrews or George Kittle, he's worth more than a mediocre RT. (We're all acting like any of the top 3 or 4 OTs can't exceed expectations, when they can, too.). But let's just assume they are average RTs in the NFL as you put it. What happens if we miss on the evaluation? What if Bowers instead of being a top 3 TE in the league is the 7th or 8th best TE in the league? That's still way better than most of these top 20 TEs have fared. What if Brock Bowers becomes Hunter Henry? You can get Hunter Henry in FA this year. You can get Dalton Schultz in FA this year. Spotrac estimates Schultz at $11.3 million and Henry at $7.5 AAV. The Chargers 1st round pick will have a cap hit of $5.8 million next year for comparison. A TE that you don't have to gameplan around just doesn't move the needle much. It's a position that is the hardest to evaluate and one you can't miss on the evaluation or you aren't getting good value. There are busts at every position, but the bust rate at TE is exceptionally high and the payoff for hitting 80% of projection just isn't very high. One of these days a "generational TE" will actually hit, but I'm not willing to gamble a top 5 pick on it.

I understand your thinking.

But at the same time, we have a top 5 left tackle in the NFL on the roster. So in terms of draft slot and salary, 5 is pretty rich for a right tackle. If we stay at 5 and you want more certain value, Nabers might be the pick

[BigBad]

I think the point is that we're absolutely terrible at picking out generational TEs. Since 2000 every generational TE drafted hasn't been a needle mover. Not one has been someone to game plan against. The three "generational" TEs drafted since I started following the draft closely have been Winslow, Davis, and Pitts. Shockey and Hockenson were not far behind.
.

Of those listed here were the QBs on those teams when drafted

Winslow - Browns - Jeff Garcia
Davis - 49ers - Alex Smith
Pitts - Falcons - Matt Ryan
Shockey - giants - Kerry Collins
Hockenson - Lions - Stafford

Most TEs taken that high go to garbage teams with bad QBs. Pitts went over 1000 yards in his rookie year with Matt Ryan.

Herbert would be the best QB out of that list. I'm not saying TEs are not high boom/bust I'm saying the QB and team is a huge variable.

[eaterfan]

Of those listed here were the QBs on those teams when drafted

Winslow - Browns - Jeff Garcia
Davis - 49ers - Alex Smith
Pitts - Falcons - Matt Ryan
Shockey - giants - Kerry Collins
Hockenson - Lions - Stafford

Most TEs taken that high go to garbage teams with bad QBs. Pitts went over 1000 yards in his rookie year with Matt Ryan.

Herbert would be the best QB out of that list. I'm not saying TEs are not high boom/bust I'm saying the QB and team is a huge variable.

That's fair, but WRs taken early also deal with bad QBs fairly often and they pan out much more often.

[CanadianBoltFan]

Of those listed here were the QBs on those teams when drafted

Winslow - Browns - Jeff Garcia
Davis - 49ers - Alex Smith
Pitts - Falcons - Matt Ryan
Shockey - giants - Kerry Collins
Hockenson - Lions - Stafford

Most TEs taken that high go to garbage teams with bad QBs. Pitts went over 1000 yards in his rookie year with Matt Ryan.

Herbert would be the best QB out of that list. I'm not saying TEs are not high boom/bust I'm saying the QB and team is a huge variable.

One thing I will say if we are using the Kyle Pitts example as why not to draft Bowers high a couple of things...

He was the only TE in history to get 1000 yards as a rookie other than Mike Ditka but the reason he hasn't had the expected impact is because of no QB and mainly ARTHUR SMITH. No one is worse at wasting elite weapons. This clown didn't even know what to do with Bijan Robinson.

[Riverwalk]

We finally have the best GM/HC talent evaluators in the history of the Chargers and some are still anxious over who they will draft.

I say put it on autopilot because you can be assured they know how to rebuild this team far better than you do.

If they choose Bowers, than fine. If they don’t, then fine. I have 100% confidence they understand what to do far greater than any fan.

Saying who Harbaugh should draft is like telling Elon Musk how to build a rocket.

[BigBad]

We finally have the best GM/HC talent evaluators in the history of the Chargers and some are still anxious over who they will draft.

I say put it on autopilot because you can be assured they know how to rebuild this team far better than you do.

If they choose Bowers, than fine. If they don’t, then fine. I have 100% confidence they understand what to do far greater than any fan.

Saying who Harbaugh should draft is like telling Elon Musk how to build a rocket.

You are correct but if none of us had our opinions and talked here what fun would that be?

[Riverwalk]

You are correct but if none of us had our opinions and talked here what fun would that be?

Well, in that case…..they better draft Bowers and not fuck this up!!!