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2024 NFL draft: Latest buzz, prospect risers, Round 1 rumors
Mar 29, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
We're less than one month from Round 1 of the 2024 NFL draft. Draft boards are starting to firm up, team needs are becoming more clear and prospects are making their final on-field statements at pro days across the country. And along the way, intrigue around what every team is going to do on Day 1 is picking up.
We've heard a lot of buzz about early picks, standout players, potential trades and the quarterback market. So we asked NFL draft analysts Matt Miller, Jordan Reid and Field Yates to break down the latest intel from around the league and dish on what they've heard on the road at pro days this month.
Who are the biggest pro day risers? Which prospects are our experts higher or lower on than general consensus? And what are the wild-card teams that could surprise everyone in the first round? We get into all that and then let Matt, Jordan and Field empty their scouting notebooks with what they're hearing, seeing and thinking as we near April.
Which prospect is rising most from his pro day performance?
Miller: Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame. One of the biggest surprises of the combine was Estime's 40-yard dash time of 4.71 seconds. No one expected him to break Chris Johnson's 4.24 running back record (2008), but that speed was concerning -- even for a big back at 5-foot-11 and 221 pounds. Estime got redemption at the Notre Dame pro day, though, with a 4.58-second run that is more in line with the speed he has shown on tape. Currently ranked as a late-Round 3 pick on my board, Estime has the power, patience, vision and contact balance of an NFL starting running back. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him among the top three RBs selected in this year's draft.
Yates: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan. Hear me out on this, as I know many people are inherently dubious of the value of a quarterback pro day. And I agree, but what makes this situation a little bit different is that McCarthy's throwing session was a chance for the spotlight to be shined mostly on him, something that was not frequently the case at Michigan relative to other top quarterback prospects. The Wolverines were among the top 10 run-heavy teams in the nation, but McCarthy took center stage at the pro day.
Weighing in at 220 pounds -- up from his listed weight of 202 and in line with his 219 combine number -- McCarthy threw the ball with force and accuracy. Many NFL teams feel there are four top quarterbacks (rather than three),and I would not rule anything out with McCarthy -- obviously other than him going first overall to the Bears. J.J. McCarthy could be an NFL QB for a long time
Pat McAfee and A.J. Hawk react to Jim Harbaugh's praise of J.J. McCarthy after his pro day at Michigan.
Reid: Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina. I'm going with a quarterback, too. Rattler generated plenty of buzz after his pro day throwing session, and an AFC area scout told me, "I think a team may take a chance on him somewhere in Round 2." Displaying balance, poise and accuracy, Rattler got the ball out with velocity. He worked his way through the workout with confidence, and I counted only five balls that fell to the turf, with three of those being drops. Teams that miss out on a QB early could take a long look at Rattler on Day 2.
Which prospect are you higher on than consensus?
Reid: Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan. Even though he's only 5-9 and 182 pounds, Sainristil plays with toughness and could be a starter at nickel in the NFL. He is one of my favorite prospects to watch in this class, and I have him ranked at No. 50. I don't think he'll ultimately get picked in the top 50, though; he's more likely to be selected in the later portions of Day 2. But nickel defenders are very important in today's defensive systems, and I'd bet we'll be wondering in five years why Sainristil -- who picked off six passes last season -- wasn't drafted higher.
Yates: Maason Smith, DT, LSU. Smith has all the physical tools to become a standout in the NFL, checking in at 6-5 and 306 pounds with long arms and a massive wingspan. He looked the part of a star as a true freshman back in 2021, but a torn ACL in his left knee in 2022 essentially ended his season before it started. A slow start this past season felt to me like he was working his way back into playing shape, and he finished strong. His interior pocket disruption through strength and length will be a problem for offensive linemen. He has been a fixture in my top 50, which feels a full round -- or more -- higher than how most have evaluated him.
Miller: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia. I'm surprised by this, because our guy Field is the president of the McConkey Fan Club, but I'm the only one of us who has him ranked in the top 25. McConkey battled through back and ankle injuries in 2023 but put together dominant performances at the Senior Bowl and combine -- including a 4.39-second run in the 40-yard dash. He might be typecast as a slot receiver given his size at 6 feet and 186 pounds, but McConkey has the quickness, burst and hands to be a high-level producer in the NFL. He's at No. 25 on my board even though he is generally considered a second-rounder in the Nos. 40-50 range.
And which prospect are you lower on than consensus?
Yates: T'Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas. I'm not sure Sweat is a top-30 or even top-40 player overall. While there's a ton to love about Sweat's game -- he's the most powerful defensive player in the class -- it is rare for a player of his stature (366 pounds) to play a significant number of snaps every week at the next level. Over the past five seasons, there has been just one NFL defensive player listed at 350-plus pounds to play at least 50% of his team's defensive snaps in a season (Michael Pierce at 55% last season). Sweat's flashes are outstanding, but I believe he will be more of a 40-45% player as opposed to someone who plays 60% or more of the snaps. And that makes using a top-64 pick on Sweat a less valuable use of resources in my opinion. EDITOR'S PICKS
Miller: JC Latham, OT, Alabama. I have Latham at No. 23 overall, quite a bit lower than the top-15 status he gets from many evaluators. His heavy feet stand out way too often when watching him, despite some really good traits (grip strength and power) and the fact that he allowed two sacks in his entire career. Today's NFL requires movement and agility along the offensive line, as the West Coast system's roots touch so many playbooks. Tackles who can get to the second level are now a requirement, and that's not part of Latham's game. Maybe I'm overthinking this or putting too much stock into games against Texas and Michigan in which he struggled. But Latham looks like a good right tackle or even right guard to me, not a potential top-five NFL right tackle with a top-15 ranking.
Reid: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma. Guyton anchored the right side of Oklahoma's offensive front and had a really good final season there. The pass-protection traits are appealing, too. But Guyton still has room for improvement as a run-blocker, as his hand usage and balance are inconsistent. He tends to misfire with his hands and slide off blocks. We saw it on tape and again at the Senior Bowl. In a deep offensive tackle class, I have Guyton graded as an early Day 2 prospect and ranked No. 31 overall. But based on consensus, he could be a first-rounder, and it would not be surprising if Guyton is drafted as high as No. 20 to the Steelers.
Which team picking in the first round is the biggest wild card?
Miller: Los Angeles Chargers. A new regime is in place with coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz running their first draft together, which already brings mystery to the team's first-round approach. But the Chargers also cut wide receiver Mike Williams, traded wideout Keenan Allen and still have an existing need for an offensive tackle to pair with Rashawn Slater, leaving this wide open. Oh, and Harbaugh keeps telling people that McCarthy -- who played for him at Michigan -- is the best quarterback in the draft. With the No. 5 pick, the Chargers could select Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt, take the best receiver on the board or trade down to add draft capital (and get the best tackle or receiver available down the board).
Reid: New York Giants. With the No. 6 pick, it seems that a lot depends on how they view this year's QB class. If McCarthy or another highly graded passer is still on the board, do the Giants draft him? Daniel Jones hasn't stayed healthy (torn ACL in 2023) and struggled when he did play last season, so GM Joe Schoen could look to take his QB of the future. But wide receiver is an alternative avenue for them. Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), Malik Nabers (LSU) and Rome Odunze (Washington) are three great options who could be available. The Giants lack a true WR1, and any of them would immediately be the top option for the team as a rookie.
Yates: Denver Broncos. Picking at No. 12 (for now), I'm struggling to get a grasp on what approach Denver will adopt if it stands pat. Will the Broncos fill their most obvious need at quarterback even if there are few leftover options after teams in the top 10 pursue the top guys? Will they attempt to trade up to secure that quarterback? Of note, Denver is light on draft capital and doesn't have a second-round pick, so a trade up the board would be difficult to execute. Or will the team eschew the QB spot -- and if so, will it go "best player available" at a lesser need (i.e. Alabama CB Terrion Arnold or Georgia TE Brock Bowers)? It's a hard team to figure out. ay 2:01 Matt Miller's blockbuster Broncos trade in his NFL mock draft
Matt Miller has the Broncos sending three first-round picks to the Cardinals to move up for J.J. McCarthy in his NFL mock draft.
Let's empty the notebooks with everything else we're hearing and seeing this week
Miller's notes:
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Rice wide receiver Luke McCaffrey comes up often in scouting chats, as Christian's younger brother is a fun prospect to study and project. The former quarterback has just two seasons as a receiver under his belt, but he crushed the combine and shows a competitive edge on film. While his route running is still a work in progress, McCaffrey tied with Odunze for the most contested catches in FBS last season with 24. He might need a developmental stage, but he's an early Day 3 pick I would bet on -- and he has a lot of love around the league.
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There are two positions where teams tell me the order of players will reflect "what you need" more than others: tight end and safety. While Bowers is by far the best tight end in the class, the next one off the board could be any number of players. Texas' Ja'Tavion Sanders excelled after the catch in college but had a pedestrian 40 time at the combine, TCU's Jared Wiley has a massive frame at 6-6 and can run, and Penn State's Theo Johnson had a dominant combine after modest college production. Meanwhile, I feel good about having Utah's Cole Bishop as my top-ranked safety, but there are varying opinions about how that position stacks up, with Kamren Kinchens (Miami), Jaden Hicks (Washington State), Tyler Nubin (Minnesota) and Javon Bullard (Georgia) also in the mix for the best in class.
â–ª
The Washington pro day was full of NFL personnel -- and future NFL talent. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s throwing session was as expected, as the ball flies off his hand effortlessly. I'll continue to contend that he is as impressive as any quarterback throwing from the pocket. He also opted to do the vertical (36.5 inches) and broad (10-foot-5) jumps, and scouts near me clocked him in the 4.56-4.59 range in the 40. And while neither Troy Fautanu or Roger Rosengarten is a sleeper, seeing each of them move up close was impressive. Fautanu's feet might be the best in the class, while Rosengarten is so solid in space. Fautanu sneaking into the top 10 picks in the draft is something I've pondered for my own mock drafts.
Mar 29, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
We're less than one month from Round 1 of the 2024 NFL draft. Draft boards are starting to firm up, team needs are becoming more clear and prospects are making their final on-field statements at pro days across the country. And along the way, intrigue around what every team is going to do on Day 1 is picking up.
We've heard a lot of buzz about early picks, standout players, potential trades and the quarterback market. So we asked NFL draft analysts Matt Miller, Jordan Reid and Field Yates to break down the latest intel from around the league and dish on what they've heard on the road at pro days this month.
Who are the biggest pro day risers? Which prospects are our experts higher or lower on than general consensus? And what are the wild-card teams that could surprise everyone in the first round? We get into all that and then let Matt, Jordan and Field empty their scouting notebooks with what they're hearing, seeing and thinking as we near April.
Which prospect is rising most from his pro day performance?Miller: Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame. One of the biggest surprises of the combine was Estime's 40-yard dash time of 4.71 seconds. No one expected him to break Chris Johnson's 4.24 running back record (2008), but that speed was concerning -- even for a big back at 5-foot-11 and 221 pounds. Estime got redemption at the Notre Dame pro day, though, with a 4.58-second run that is more in line with the speed he has shown on tape. Currently ranked as a late-Round 3 pick on my board, Estime has the power, patience, vision and contact balance of an NFL starting running back. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him among the top three RBs selected in this year's draft.
Yates: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan. Hear me out on this, as I know many people are inherently dubious of the value of a quarterback pro day. And I agree, but what makes this situation a little bit different is that McCarthy's throwing session was a chance for the spotlight to be shined mostly on him, something that was not frequently the case at Michigan relative to other top quarterback prospects. The Wolverines were among the top 10 run-heavy teams in the nation, but McCarthy took center stage at the pro day.
Weighing in at 220 pounds -- up from his listed weight of 202 and in line with his 219 combine number -- McCarthy threw the ball with force and accuracy. Many NFL teams feel there are four top quarterbacks (rather than three),and I would not rule anything out with McCarthy -- obviously other than him going first overall to the Bears. J.J. McCarthy could be an NFL QB for a long time
Pat McAfee and A.J. Hawk react to Jim Harbaugh's praise of J.J. McCarthy after his pro day at Michigan.
Reid: Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina. I'm going with a quarterback, too. Rattler generated plenty of buzz after his pro day throwing session, and an AFC area scout told me, "I think a team may take a chance on him somewhere in Round 2." Displaying balance, poise and accuracy, Rattler got the ball out with velocity. He worked his way through the workout with confidence, and I counted only five balls that fell to the turf, with three of those being drops. Teams that miss out on a QB early could take a long look at Rattler on Day 2.
Which prospect are you higher on than consensus?
Reid: Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan. Even though he's only 5-9 and 182 pounds, Sainristil plays with toughness and could be a starter at nickel in the NFL. He is one of my favorite prospects to watch in this class, and I have him ranked at No. 50. I don't think he'll ultimately get picked in the top 50, though; he's more likely to be selected in the later portions of Day 2. But nickel defenders are very important in today's defensive systems, and I'd bet we'll be wondering in five years why Sainristil -- who picked off six passes last season -- wasn't drafted higher.
Yates: Maason Smith, DT, LSU. Smith has all the physical tools to become a standout in the NFL, checking in at 6-5 and 306 pounds with long arms and a massive wingspan. He looked the part of a star as a true freshman back in 2021, but a torn ACL in his left knee in 2022 essentially ended his season before it started. A slow start this past season felt to me like he was working his way back into playing shape, and he finished strong. His interior pocket disruption through strength and length will be a problem for offensive linemen. He has been a fixture in my top 50, which feels a full round -- or more -- higher than how most have evaluated him.
Miller: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia. I'm surprised by this, because our guy Field is the president of the McConkey Fan Club, but I'm the only one of us who has him ranked in the top 25. McConkey battled through back and ankle injuries in 2023 but put together dominant performances at the Senior Bowl and combine -- including a 4.39-second run in the 40-yard dash. He might be typecast as a slot receiver given his size at 6 feet and 186 pounds, but McConkey has the quickness, burst and hands to be a high-level producer in the NFL. He's at No. 25 on my board even though he is generally considered a second-rounder in the Nos. 40-50 range.
And which prospect are you lower on than consensus?
Yates: T'Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas. I'm not sure Sweat is a top-30 or even top-40 player overall. While there's a ton to love about Sweat's game -- he's the most powerful defensive player in the class -- it is rare for a player of his stature (366 pounds) to play a significant number of snaps every week at the next level. Over the past five seasons, there has been just one NFL defensive player listed at 350-plus pounds to play at least 50% of his team's defensive snaps in a season (Michael Pierce at 55% last season). Sweat's flashes are outstanding, but I believe he will be more of a 40-45% player as opposed to someone who plays 60% or more of the snaps. And that makes using a top-64 pick on Sweat a less valuable use of resources in my opinion. EDITOR'S PICKS
Miller: JC Latham, OT, Alabama. I have Latham at No. 23 overall, quite a bit lower than the top-15 status he gets from many evaluators. His heavy feet stand out way too often when watching him, despite some really good traits (grip strength and power) and the fact that he allowed two sacks in his entire career. Today's NFL requires movement and agility along the offensive line, as the West Coast system's roots touch so many playbooks. Tackles who can get to the second level are now a requirement, and that's not part of Latham's game. Maybe I'm overthinking this or putting too much stock into games against Texas and Michigan in which he struggled. But Latham looks like a good right tackle or even right guard to me, not a potential top-five NFL right tackle with a top-15 ranking.
Reid: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma. Guyton anchored the right side of Oklahoma's offensive front and had a really good final season there. The pass-protection traits are appealing, too. But Guyton still has room for improvement as a run-blocker, as his hand usage and balance are inconsistent. He tends to misfire with his hands and slide off blocks. We saw it on tape and again at the Senior Bowl. In a deep offensive tackle class, I have Guyton graded as an early Day 2 prospect and ranked No. 31 overall. But based on consensus, he could be a first-rounder, and it would not be surprising if Guyton is drafted as high as No. 20 to the Steelers.
Which team picking in the first round is the biggest wild card?
Miller: Los Angeles Chargers. A new regime is in place with coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz running their first draft together, which already brings mystery to the team's first-round approach. But the Chargers also cut wide receiver Mike Williams, traded wideout Keenan Allen and still have an existing need for an offensive tackle to pair with Rashawn Slater, leaving this wide open. Oh, and Harbaugh keeps telling people that McCarthy -- who played for him at Michigan -- is the best quarterback in the draft. With the No. 5 pick, the Chargers could select Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt, take the best receiver on the board or trade down to add draft capital (and get the best tackle or receiver available down the board).
Reid: New York Giants. With the No. 6 pick, it seems that a lot depends on how they view this year's QB class. If McCarthy or another highly graded passer is still on the board, do the Giants draft him? Daniel Jones hasn't stayed healthy (torn ACL in 2023) and struggled when he did play last season, so GM Joe Schoen could look to take his QB of the future. But wide receiver is an alternative avenue for them. Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), Malik Nabers (LSU) and Rome Odunze (Washington) are three great options who could be available. The Giants lack a true WR1, and any of them would immediately be the top option for the team as a rookie.
Yates: Denver Broncos. Picking at No. 12 (for now), I'm struggling to get a grasp on what approach Denver will adopt if it stands pat. Will the Broncos fill their most obvious need at quarterback even if there are few leftover options after teams in the top 10 pursue the top guys? Will they attempt to trade up to secure that quarterback? Of note, Denver is light on draft capital and doesn't have a second-round pick, so a trade up the board would be difficult to execute. Or will the team eschew the QB spot -- and if so, will it go "best player available" at a lesser need (i.e. Alabama CB Terrion Arnold or Georgia TE Brock Bowers)? It's a hard team to figure out. ay 2:01 Matt Miller's blockbuster Broncos trade in his NFL mock draft
Matt Miller has the Broncos sending three first-round picks to the Cardinals to move up for J.J. McCarthy in his NFL mock draft.
Let's empty the notebooks with everything else we're hearing and seeing this week
Miller's notes:
- â–ª
One of the most interesting nuggets I've picked up over the past two weeks is that multiple NFL teams have McCarthy ranked ahead of North Carolina's Drake Maye. A high-ranking evaluator I spoke to this week said McCarthy's winning résumé, upside as a mobile QB and impeccable poise under pressure all graded out higher for them than Maye. When under pressure last season, McCarthy completed an FBS-best 68% of his passes and averaged 10 yards per attempt (second-best). - ▪
In talking to scouts over the past two weeks, it sounds like teams are not as high on Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson as the media consensus. JPJ had a strong early performance at the Senior Bowl before leaving the second practice with a hamstring injury. It was that early impression that saw him rise up draft boards. He followed that up with a good showing in position drills at the combine but didn't participate in most of the other drills -- he did only the bench press and vertical/broad jumps -- before shutting it down. The feedback I've received from teams is that while he might go in the first round, it's unlikely that he would be selected in the top 25 picks based on where teams are ranking him.
- â–ª
Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton had his pro day Thursday and wowed evaluators in attendance. At 6-5 and 313 pounds, scouts had times in the 4.94-4.97 range for his 40-yard dash and an impressive 7.31-second three-cone drill. Barton is viewed primarily as a center, but many scouts who I talked to mentioned the Titans' Peter Skoronski as a comparison. Some evaluators say Barton could go inside the top 15, pointing to a lack of versatile interior blockers in this class. (I have him ranked at No. 26.) - â–ª
The Patriots and Commanders had the most representation among teams at pro days for LSU's Jayden Daniels (Wednesday) and North Carolina's Maye (Thursday). Both teams were shoulder-to-shoulder standing behind each of the passers. Who the Commanders will take at No. 2 seems like it could go either way, and scouts seemed to love that Maye and Daniels had back-to-back pro days to get a closer look.
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Rice wide receiver Luke McCaffrey comes up often in scouting chats, as Christian's younger brother is a fun prospect to study and project. The former quarterback has just two seasons as a receiver under his belt, but he crushed the combine and shows a competitive edge on film. While his route running is still a work in progress, McCaffrey tied with Odunze for the most contested catches in FBS last season with 24. He might need a developmental stage, but he's an early Day 3 pick I would bet on -- and he has a lot of love around the league.
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There are two positions where teams tell me the order of players will reflect "what you need" more than others: tight end and safety. While Bowers is by far the best tight end in the class, the next one off the board could be any number of players. Texas' Ja'Tavion Sanders excelled after the catch in college but had a pedestrian 40 time at the combine, TCU's Jared Wiley has a massive frame at 6-6 and can run, and Penn State's Theo Johnson had a dominant combine after modest college production. Meanwhile, I feel good about having Utah's Cole Bishop as my top-ranked safety, but there are varying opinions about how that position stacks up, with Kamren Kinchens (Miami), Jaden Hicks (Washington State), Tyler Nubin (Minnesota) and Javon Bullard (Georgia) also in the mix for the best in class.
â–ª
The Washington pro day was full of NFL personnel -- and future NFL talent. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s throwing session was as expected, as the ball flies off his hand effortlessly. I'll continue to contend that he is as impressive as any quarterback throwing from the pocket. He also opted to do the vertical (36.5 inches) and broad (10-foot-5) jumps, and scouts near me clocked him in the 4.56-4.59 range in the 40. And while neither Troy Fautanu or Roger Rosengarten is a sleeper, seeing each of them move up close was impressive. Fautanu's feet might be the best in the class, while Rosengarten is so solid in space. Fautanu sneaking into the top 10 picks in the draft is something I've pondered for my own mock drafts.
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