2024 Chargers Draft Superthread - Prospect Discussion - Draft Has Started

[richpjr]

Gonna be very surprised if Horitz trades 5 for two firsts. Doesn’t seem like what he’s talked about at all.

If you go by the draft charts, the 11 and 23 are worth a combined 2010 points while the fifth pick is worth 1700 points. That 310-point differential is "worth" a low second round pick this year. I suppose it depends on what he thinks is advantageous. I have a hard time believing some of the more lopsided trades discussed are faintly realistic - I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

[FoutsFan]

The Bears do not have a 2024 2nd round pick - sent it to the WTF - so it would have to be a 2025 FRP.

Trading with the Bears, Jets and Broncos is tricky - none have a 2nd rounder this year

I am glad to see you and others on the forum embracing the Washington Team of Football (WTF) acronym.

BTW WTF comes in gallons. I bought some at Sam's Club.

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[bman6555]

If you go by the draft charts, the 11 and 23 are worth a combined 2010 points while the fifth pick is worth 1700 points. That 310-point differential is "worth" a low second round pick this year. I suppose it depends on what he thinks is advantageous. I have a hard time believing some of the more lopsided trades discussed are faintly realistic - I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

The draft pick value charts apply well when do regular trades not involving QBs. For example moving up to grab a preferred WR in a draft or a pass rusher. QBs however have a large premium on top of usual values. For example Chicago wouldn't part ways with the 1st pick even if you offered them 3500 points of value, which is more than the 1st overall pick's 3000 value. So yeah if the Vikes were coming up to grab Alt for example their 11 and 23 would be plenty of value for the Chargers, but because it is for a QB there are likely many other teams who would beat that initial offer and thus why they'd also likely need to throw in a future pick as well.

[Lone Bolt]

I had another thought about a trade down scenario this morning that I do not think I have seen mentioned anywhere.

Don't skewer me... But the Bears... First four picks go either four QBs or 3 QBs and MHJ.

Chargers, sitting at #5, get a call from the Bears. They offer #9, 2024 2nd and 2025 2nd. The Bears do this to add the dynamic Nabers to the team. The Bears could stay at 9 and get Odunze, but make the move.

Chargers move down four spots and gain another pick this year and next.

Thoughts?

If they are set on RT being the focus of our first pick, then why not move back and get the guy you wanted anyway?

I wont quibble over your suggested compensation...most on here think they are trade compensation mensa, and will happily tell you your proposal is too rich, or too poor for us...bottom line, I have always thought that if they are in love with Fuaga or Latham...get whatever the hell you can, and get your guy anyway....talk tough, but dont hold the line, cuz if you get nothing, then pick Fuaga anyway...nose...spite...face...

Now...if they want Alt, or one of the Big 3 wrs...then off course you rape them...because you are actually giving something up, and settling for a lower prospect on your board...

But again, hard to speculate...cuz what many of us forget...we have zero idea what the Chargers' board looks like...for all we know, Dallas Turner or Johnny Newton are top dawg...

[Bolt4Knob]

If you go by the draft charts, the 11 and 23 are worth a combined 2010 points while the fifth pick is worth 1700 points. That 310-point differential is "worth" a low second round pick this year. I suppose it depends on what he thinks is advantageous. I have a hard time believing some of the more lopsided trades discussed are faintly realistic - I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Yes, I am not sure the Chargers could get 11, 23 and a future FRP to move from 5 to 11 - but maybe they can. I think 11 and 23 are good value for 5 - if your draft rankings, taking out the 4 QBs, show that 11 is a very good player. Now Hortiz said he makes sure he has 32 players he can draft in R1 as there are 32 slots. But that doesn't mean its a linear stair step that player player grades are the same between 1 and 2 as they are 31 and 32

My guess, the top 10 players have bigger gaps than 20-30. Hence, don't get cute and over think this if three QBs go.

[charger1_sj]

The draft pick value charts apply well when do regular trades not involving QBs. For example moving up to grab a preferred WR in a draft or a pass rusher. QBs however have a large premium on top of usual values. For example Chicago wouldn't part ways with the 1st pick even if you offered them 3500 points of value, which is more than the 1st overall pick's 3000 value. So yeah if the Vikes were coming up to grab Alt for example their 11 and 23 would be plenty of value for the Chargers, but because it is for a QB there are likely many other teams who would beat that initial offer and thus why they'd also likely need to throw in a future pick as well.

Besides the Vikings which teams have 2 first round draft picks that would need a QB? So to beat the Vikings offer a team would have to thrown in a
a first rounder, good player, plus next year's 2025 1st rounder.

The Viking may be happy giving up #11, #23 to us and leaving 300 points on the table. But would the Chargers be happy with that?

[Xenos]

[bman6555]

Besides the Vikings which teams have 2 first round draft picks that would need a QB? So to beat the Vikings offer a team would have to thrown in a
a first rounder, good player, plus next year's 2025 1st rounder.

The Viking may be happy giving up #11, #23 to us and leaving 300 points on the table. But would the Chargers be happy with that?

Yes, it really depends on what other teams are willing to offer. Most will cite the Trey Lance deal where SF had to trade #12, 2 future firsts along with a future 3rd. Obviously that's an overpay based on the chart but probably other teams would have beaten the 2 firsts only offer. So if the Vikes think they are the only bidder they can offer more conventional trade package, but if they think someone else could move past them with an offer similar to the old SF offer, they may need to throw in the future first to lock up the trade.

I think the Chargers will be happy with even just the #11, #23 depending on who they may be after, but it's the GMs job to try and squeeze the most out of the other GM.

[Bolt4Knob]

Besides the Vikings which teams have 2 first round draft picks that would need a QB? So to beat the Vikings offer a team would have to thrown in a
a first rounder, good player, plus next year's 2025 1st rounder.

The Viking may be happy giving up #11, #23 to us and leaving 300 points on the table. But would the Chargers be happy with that?

All depends on the grades of the players. Is the value at 11 close enough to the value at 5 that adding 23 puts you WELL over the top.

But if three QBs go in the first four picks - the Chargers would probably have a 2 or 3 player on their draft board (draft boards seem to have for pure ability as MHJr, Nabers and Caleb as the best football players) - if you are getting MHJr or Nabers at 5 - you are totally winning that pick. So maybe the extra 300 is not enough. Now - if you say Bowers or OT in your top 7 or 8 of pure players on your board and you are getting at 11 with 23 - that might do it

[Bolt4Knob]

Allbright comes out with his mock draft - or maybe top 10 - not sure - in the next hour or so. I will be looking forward to that

He is pretty plugged in I have found. Getting the Giants to want a QB would be ideal as I think I like the idea of an extra 3rd and still getting that top 3 talent at 6 -- this means that 4 QBs would go in the first 5 picks.

[Boltjolt]

Alabama OTs taking that % down but holy shit look at that WR miss rate. We got to be careful if we going WR. Which 1st round WRs will be the misses?

[charger1_sj]

All depends on the grades of the players. Is the value at 11 close enough to the value at 5 that adding 23 puts you WELL over the top.

But if three QBs go in the first four picks - the Chargers would probably have a 2 or 3 player on their draft board (draft boards seem to have for pure ability as MHJr, Nabers and Caleb as the best football players) - if you are getting MHJr or Nabers at 5 - you are totally winning that pick. So maybe the extra 300 is not enough. Now - if you say Bowers or OT in your top 7 or 8 of pure players on your board and you are getting at 11 with 23 - that might do it

No way to know that ahead of time. There would be 5 picks between #5 and #11. Who knows which players will be there?
There are 5 OTs figured to go in RD1. So one would be there @11. But would that be BPA for us, if lets say Odunze, Bowers
or a top defensive guy is there as well?

Trying to figure out our big board is a big maze because we have so many needs. There could be lumps of guys closely graded
as you mentioned and at different positions. How do you grade a WR vs a OT? Let say it's between Odunze and Fauga @11.
Some are going to say Fauga, others Odunze. I think a case can be made for either one. Then the jump from #11 to #23 can
be a steep one in terms of the talent.