2024 Chargers Draft Superthread - Prospect Discussion - Draft Has Started

[charger1_sj]

Alabama OTs taking that % down but holy shit look at that WR miss rate. We got to be careful if we going WR. Which 1st round WRs will be the misses?

A big misleading because WR, TE, RB rely on O line and QB. But those are the guys that score the TDs.

[eaterfan]

Everybody is now saying the Vikes will trade Justin Jefferson in part of deal to move up for a QB. It's interesting that teams increasingly don't want to even the best WRs in the league big money. Jefferson is playing on his 5th year option this season, and he's due for a mega contract next season. The Vikes can afford it, they will have a QB on a rookie contract (presumably). But they don't want to. H&H were happy to jettison KA's salary. The Chiefs were happy to let the best WR in the league go, along with his salary, then won back-to-back Super Bowls without him. I think the feeling is that elite WRs are not essential to success, not like elite QBs are.

Everybody is saying the Chargers will trade Herbert. I'll believe it when I see it.

In actual WR news, the Lions just gave Amon-Ra St. Brown a giant bag of cash.

[Velo]

Everybody is now saying the Vikes will trade Justin Jefferson in part of deal to move up for a QB. It's interesting that teams increasingly don't want to even the best WRs in the league big money. Jefferson is playing on his 5th year option this season, and he's due for a mega contract next season. The Vikes can afford it, they will have a QB on a rookie contract (presumably). But they don't want to. H&H were happy to jettison KA's salary. The Chiefs were happy to let the best WR in the league go, along with his salary, then won back-to-back Super Bowls without him. I think the feeling is that elite WRs are not essential to success, not like elite QBs are.

[eaterfan]

I don't believe anything I read this week. Sure, some things will turn out to be correct, but I don't think it's any better (and probably worse overall) than random guesses.

Buckle up!

This is what makes the draft so interesting and why people will watch a guy with the personality of a wet sock announce names for 20 hours this week.

[Bolt4Knob]

Alabama OTs taking that % down but holy shit look at that WR miss rate. We got to be careful if we going WR. Which 1st round WRs will be the misses?

I saw another chart that shows the Ravens have been very good about getting players to second contracts - highest in the league. Now Lamar might drive some of that for sure with his contract

[charger1_sj]

All depends on the grades of the players. Is the value at 11 close enough to the value at 5 that adding 23 puts you WELL over the top.

But if three QBs go in the first four picks - the Chargers would probably have a 2 or 3 player on their draft board (draft boards seem to have for pure ability as MHJr, Nabers and Caleb as the best football players) - if you are getting MHJr or Nabers at 5 - you are totally winning that pick. So maybe the extra 300 is not enough. Now - if you say Bowers or OT in your top 7 or 8 of pure players on your board and you are getting at 11 with 23 - that might do it

No way to know that ahead of time. There would be 5 picks between #5 and #11. Who knows which players will be there?
There are 5 OTs figured to go in RD1. So one would be there @11. But would that be BPA for us, if lets say Odunze, Bowers
or a top defensive guy is there as well?

Trying to figure out our big board is a big maze because we have so many needs. There could be lumps of guys closely graded
as you mentioned and at different positions. How do you grade a WR vs a OT? Let say it's between Odunze and Fauga @11.
Some are going to say Fauga, others Odunze. I think a case can be made for either one. Then the jump from #11 to #23 can
be a steep one in terms of the talent.

[Boltjolt]

Alabama OTs taking that % down but holy shit look at that WR miss rate. We got to be careful if we going WR. Which 1st round WRs will be the misses?

[Bolt4Knob]

Allbright comes out with his mock draft - or maybe top 10 - not sure - in the next hour or so. I will be looking forward to that

He is pretty plugged in I have found. Getting the Giants to want a QB would be ideal as I think I like the idea of an extra 3rd and still getting that top 3 talent at 6 -- this means that 4 QBs would go in the first 5 picks.

[Bolt4Knob]

Besides the Vikings which teams have 2 first round draft picks that would need a QB? So to beat the Vikings offer a team would have to thrown in a
a first rounder, good player, plus next year's 2025 1st rounder.

The Viking may be happy giving up #11, #23 to us and leaving 300 points on the table. But would the Chargers be happy with that?

All depends on the grades of the players. Is the value at 11 close enough to the value at 5 that adding 23 puts you WELL over the top.

But if three QBs go in the first four picks - the Chargers would probably have a 2 or 3 player on their draft board (draft boards seem to have for pure ability as MHJr, Nabers and Caleb as the best football players) - if you are getting MHJr or Nabers at 5 - you are totally winning that pick. So maybe the extra 300 is not enough. Now - if you say Bowers or OT in your top 7 or 8 of pure players on your board and you are getting at 11 with 23 - that might do it

[bman6555]

Besides the Vikings which teams have 2 first round draft picks that would need a QB? So to beat the Vikings offer a team would have to thrown in a
a first rounder, good player, plus next year's 2025 1st rounder.

The Viking may be happy giving up #11, #23 to us and leaving 300 points on the table. But would the Chargers be happy with that?

Yes, it really depends on what other teams are willing to offer. Most will cite the Trey Lance deal where SF had to trade #12, 2 future firsts along with a future 3rd. Obviously that's an overpay based on the chart but probably other teams would have beaten the 2 firsts only offer. So if the Vikes think they are the only bidder they can offer more conventional trade package, but if they think someone else could move past them with an offer similar to the old SF offer, they may need to throw in the future first to lock up the trade.

I think the Chargers will be happy with even just the #11, #23 depending on who they may be after, but it's the GMs job to try and squeeze the most out of the other GM.

[Xenos]

[charger1_sj]

The draft pick value charts apply well when do regular trades not involving QBs. For example moving up to grab a preferred WR in a draft or a pass rusher. QBs however have a large premium on top of usual values. For example Chicago wouldn't part ways with the 1st pick even if you offered them 3500 points of value, which is more than the 1st overall pick's 3000 value. So yeah if the Vikes were coming up to grab Alt for example their 11 and 23 would be plenty of value for the Chargers, but because it is for a QB there are likely many other teams who would beat that initial offer and thus why they'd also likely need to throw in a future pick as well.

Besides the Vikings which teams have 2 first round draft picks that would need a QB? So to beat the Vikings offer a team would have to thrown in a
a first rounder, good player, plus next year's 2025 1st rounder.

The Viking may be happy giving up #11, #23 to us and leaving 300 points on the table. But would the Chargers be happy with that?