2023 NFL Draft

[Formula 21]

2023 NFL Draft Watch: 15 prospects I hated leaving off my midseason top 50


By Dane Brugler
Nov 4, 2022

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Constructing a top-50 draft board at this point is an interesting and challenging process. At first, it can be daunting to identify that many prospects who are truly deserving a spot on the list. After compiling names for a while, though, it becomes tough to narrow down the rankings to only 50.

Here are 15 players I hated leaving off my midseason top-50 update:

(Note: An asterisk indicates a draft-eligible underclassman.)
Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee


Although an ankle injury has hampered his senior season, Cedric Tillman is back on the field and ready to show why he belongs in the top 50. A big, physical target at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he won’t be bullied off his route and shows smooth body control in and out of his breaks. His catch radius and athleticism are why he could be the first senior receiver drafted.
Gervon Dexter Sr., DT, Florida*


If you take his best 10 plays from this season, Gervon Dexter Sr. looks like the next Chris Jones. However, the body of work just isn’t there yet. He can uproot blockers with his power or slice through gaps with his body flexibility, but Dexter is consistently the last defensive lineman off the snap, and a lack of discipline takes away from his potential impact.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State


Luke Musgrave was going to be a shoo-in for my top 50 until a knee injury in September clouded his immediate future. Nonetheless, he graded as the top senior tight end in this class, when healthy. Musgrave has outstanding route speed and receiving ability for his size (6-6, 250) and projects as an NFL starter.

GO DEEPER

Mandel's Week 10 picks against the spread
DJ Turner, CB, Michigan*


DJ Turner lacks refinement in several areas. He needs to play with more control in downfield coverage and when firing downhill against the run. However, he has 4.3 speed with redirect skills and toughness that will translate well to the NFL. He is a top-100 prospect trying to break into the top 50.
Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota


Tyler Nubin continues to be one of the more underrated senior prospects in the 2023 draft class. At 6-2, 210, he is a well-put-together athlete with a great feel in coverage and outstanding ball skills (team-high three interceptions in 2022). He’s also a dependable open-field tackler. He’ll drop his pads, extend his arms and drive through his target.
Layden Robinson, OG, Texas A&M*


Layden Robinson has been the first to acknowledge that he hasn’t played up to expectations this season. Still, although he’s been inconsistent, it is easy to see the talent that put him on the NFL radar. With his ability to anchor at shallow depth, Robinson is a hard guy to move at the point of attack and matches power with power.
Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse*


Garrett Williams made my initial draft for the most recent top 50 but, unfortunately, suffered a torn ACL last weekend against Notre Dame. Williams is a hyperaware player with above-average speed and the footwork to stay on top of routes. Time will tell how the knee injury will affect his decision to go pro or not.


Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State*


Although his heart might be on defense, Cade Stover is a damn talented offensive weapon. The former linebacker is a bully as a blocker (aside from his misses on wide receiver screens) and looks natural catching the football. Stover has sticky hands (zero drops in 2022) with playmaking athleticism after the catch.
Felix Anudike-Uzomah, edge, Kansas State*


A relentless quarterback hunter, Felix Anudike-Uzomah can dip the corner or use his physical hands to attack and work off blockers. He is more average than above average in areas, but he has terrorized Big 12 offensive tackles the past two seasons (18.5 sacks since the start of 2021).
Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina*


Listed at 5-10, 175, Josh Downs doesn’t have an ideal size, but his scampering speed and ball skills make him tough to cover, especially downfield. He won’t reach triple-digit receptions like he did last season (especially after he missed two games in September), but he is finding the end zone more in 2022. Downs has the talent to crack the top 50.
Blake Corum, RB, Michigan*


Blake Corum has destroyed Big Ten defenses this season, averaging 168.6 rushing yards in Michigan’s five conference games. He is built low to the ground with the agile footwork and toughness to bounce out of tackle attempts. What truly sets Corum apart is his line-of-scrimmage vision and decision-making.


Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois


An ascending prospect, Devon Witherspoon might not have elite size and speed, but he plays fast and much bigger than he looks. He does a nice job returning his eyes to the quarterback to find the football, and his coverage awareness has blossomed this season as he’s anticipating routes and understanding his help. Witherspoon’s aggressive style and versatility will make him a popular prospect among NFL defensive coordinators once they watch his film.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah


As a blocker, Dalton Kincaid has been inconsistent this season. But NFL teams looking for an athletic pass catcher at tight end will love what he has to offer. Kincaid quickly enters his routes to create passing windows and shows outstanding focus and ball skills. His best trait might be how quickly he transitions from a receiver to a runner and picks up yards after the catch.
JL Skinner, SAF, Boise State


At 6-4, 210 with 33-inch arms, JL Skinner is a long-striding athlete with outstanding range. The big question will be: What is his best position and scheme fit? He plays more of an overhang role close to the line of scrimmage at Boise State, but he won’t be scheme-proof in the NFL.


Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M*


A king-sized corner at 6-2, 205, Jaylon Jones has enticing length and athleticism for the next level. However, his technique and awareness at the position are still in the development phase, and Jones remains unproven in several areas (just 10 targets in coverage this season).

[Formula 21]

Debating the 2023 NFL Draft Top 50: Which prospects are overrated? Who’s QB1?


By Nick Baumgardner, Diante Lee, Nate Tice
Nov 5, 2022

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Earlier this week, The Athletic draft guru Dane Brugler released his updated, midseason top 50 board for the 2023 NFL Draft class. There was some significant movement from the August rankings, too: Bryce Young ascended to QB1, Olu Fashanu skyrocketed up to No. 5, Jahmyr Gibbs and Lukas Van Ness both cracked the top 25.

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So, what did our other draft experts think of the latest list?
What’s the first thing that jumped out as you looked through the updated top 50?


Nick Baumgardner: Olu Fashanu! The Penn State third-year sophomore was a severely underrated recruit coming out of the DMV in 2020. He wasn’t rated in the consensus top 400 back then but had an offer sheet (Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Penn State) that would rival a five-star. Now folks know why. Dane doesn’t bump up guys like this by accident. Fashanu’s looked outstanding all year, and pro scouts have clearly picked up on everything he has at 6-foot-6, 308 pounds.

I also think, in general, it’s been good to see some firm improvement from the tackle class. We talked about that possibility back in the summer. There was a lot to like with guys like Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson Jr. and even Dawand Jones, but we needed to see more. I think we have. This still isn’t an elite OT class, but there’s some budding depth here.

GO DEEPER

2023 NFL Draft Watch: 15 prospects I hated leaving off my midseason top 50

Diante Lee: The way the cornerback class is stacking up is fascinating me, as well. Kelee Ringo, Christian Gonzalez, Joey Porter Jr. and Clark Phillips III are high-level movers and comfortable in press or off coverage. I don’t think you can go wrong with any of these options in the top 50 picks of this upcoming draft. If you consider Alabama’s Brian Branch as a slot defender in the league, this class (combined with the past few) is helping to usher in a new golden era of defensive back play.

Nate Tice: Four offensive tackles in the top 20 and as many tight ends (three) as wide receivers in the top 33. There’s shaping up to be some interesting offensive tackle names in the first round with wildly different player profiles, too, whether it’s polished and smooth (albeit with some physical limitations) like Skoronski or high ceiling like Fashanu, who is improving by leaps and bounds every week.

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The wide receiver class seems to have evaluators squinting to find names to plop on top of the board. But Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison are starting to separate a bit (and, just like the tackles, are wildly different types of players). It’s also fun to see so many tight ends this high up the board. All of them are true tight ends instead of glorified wide receivers, and that’s valuable for teams at the NFL level.

C.J. Stroud likely will be a Heisman finalist, but he slid to a No. 10 ranking on our latest draft board. (Joseph Maiorana / USA Today)There are five quarterbacks represented, led by Bryce Young at No. 3. Do you agree with the order (Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Tanner McKee, Hendon Hooker)? Should any other QBs have cracked the list?


Lee: There seems to be a growing delta between the quarterbacks on the field, and it’s been reflected in Dane’s rankings. Stroud was my guy coming into the season, and he’s still leading Ohio State to what may be a national championship season, but Young is rightfully at the top of this class (right now). Stroud’s a half-stride behind, and Levis is the dividing line between the QBs who have the tools and production to justify spending a first-round pick on and those who don’t.

Stroud will have a few more opportunities to make up that ground, but Young has a command of the game and the comfort in chaos that you need to be a difference-maker in the NFL. As Levis comes off a poor performance against Tennessee, his stock is about as rocky (pun intended) as it could be, but I think he’ll shake it off and finish the year strong. He has the requisite arm talent, and he can still operate this offense when things are on schedule. When he’s 100 percent healthy, he navigates the pocket much better than he did against the Volunteers. I’m willing to bank on that.

Beyond the top three, McKee is the guy I want to believe in … and Hooker is the guy I’m willing to miss out on. McKee has all the tools; Hooker doesn’t make mistakes from the pocket. However, both guys are in situations that make it hard to cleanly evaluate their play. McKee comes from a scheme that translates to the next level (disregarding the long-mesh RPOs), but there isn’t much talent around him. Hooker, meanwhile, is throwing to track stars, but so many throws in his offense have to be tossed out in evaluations because those scenarios just won’t exist in the NFL.

Either guy can be viable in the league, but I’m going to need a lot more time to nail them down.



Tice: I would have the same top four, in that exact order, then a gap before another quarterback. Young is also my QB1 at this point. He is the best true football player among the group, someone who makes everyone around him better, and the only knocks on him have to do with size, not his actual ability.

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McKee is an interesting prospect, because he does have the desired size plus surprising athleticism. He flashes the ability to make big-time throws but is far from consistent, and his team situation does him no favors. He still has real tools, though, and I am keeping an eye on him in the back half of the season.

Hooker has done nothing but play well and improve his draft stock, but I still have him a little lower than Dane does. His age, a lack of true overwhelming trait and the point-and-shoot Tennessee offense still have me a little trepidatious.

For the top 50, there are no other names that I think warrant real consideration. The honorable mentions would have to be Tyler Van Dyke (Miami) or Anthony Richardson (Florida). Richardson’s tools are out of this world, while Van Dyke had a great October and appeared to be improving before laying an egg against Duke. Both have very real traits but need as many reps as possible, perhaps even another season of them.

Baumgardner: I’m in lock-step with Dane here, right down to the high difficulty of separating McKee from Hooker due to full context in both situations. I’m sure if you asked me tomorrow I’d say “flip those two,” but I do think they’re both top-five QBs in this group.

As far as the top three go: Absolutely believe Bryce Young is QB1 at the moment, and that he’s putting some distance between himself and Stroud (who needs a big close here). Will Levis remains absolutely fascinating. I can’t quit him.

GO DEEPER

What makes Tennessee's offense so explosive? Inside Josh Heupel's deep choice system
Give us a prospect who’s overrated and one who’s underrated (or not included) in the top 50.


Tice: I have to include Wisconsin defensive tackle Keeanu Benton and Wake Forest wide receiver A.T. Perry as players who didn’t make the list but are making valid cases.

Benton is a nose tackle who eats up blocks but has enough athleticism to disrupt offenses and actually is useful rushing the passer. Perry certainly benefits statistically from Wake Forest’s RPO-heavy offense, but he is a true ball-winner with size and the hand-eye coordination to pull down throws at all angles. He has more bend and twitch than you’d assume given his size and has the potential to be a true starting “X” receiver in the NFL, with shades of Courtland Sutton to his game. I’m a big fan.



For overrated prospect (and this isn’t about the player’s talent so much as his physical traits), I would tab Devon Achane. Again, nothing against Achane, because he has true game-breaking ability and is showing that he can withstand heavier usage, but a running back listed at 185 pounds always causes me some apprehension at slotting them too high.

Baumgardner: My underrated pick is Boston College WR Zay Flowers, who didn’t make the top 50 (and understandably so as he’s small at 5-10, 172). Every time I watch him, though, I come away more impressed than the last time. He is electric in space, tough in the air and maxes out his body without fail. I think he has a chance to be a good one.

Overrated? I still wonder about Zach Harrison. He’s an amazing athlete and his measurables are absolutely insane. He was a good high school receiver who probably could’ve hung at that position on some teams — that’s the type of athlete we’re talking about. He gave me Micah Parsons vibes as a high school prospect, in that I legitimately thought he could’ve gone to college and starred at, like, five different positions. He’s been much better this year, but I still want to see more.

Lee: I love the guy’s heart, and I think he can be an excellent run defender in a four-down defense, but I’m not sure if Nolan Smith is a top-25 player as much as he is a top-25 athlete. Watching him in pursuit, I’m convinced he’s going to be one of the most explosive runners and jumpers when it’s time for the combine and pro-day circuit. It just doesn’t always translate into Smith’s turning corners on the edge and finishing his rushes with real pocket-changing pressure. I have no problem banking on a Georgia defender, especially a guy in the trenches, but I’m not sure how he actually stacks up at the next level.

Maybe underrated is an inaccurate description, because it’s really more apt to call his ability untapped, but my pick there is Dawand Jones. The refinement in his technique has made a world of difference in how he’s played thus far, and if he has the feet and patience to keep his height and weight from being his worst enemy, the sky’s the limit.

[beachcomber]

LB Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State:

Ohio State is known for its pass rushers, but the unsung heroes of those Buckeye defenses are their linebackers and Eichenberg is a perfect example of that. He is a tackle machine and can play sideline to sideline, which allows the pass rushers to play more aggressively.

He is a tone-setter in stopping the run and is the team’s leading tackler. He isn’t a flashy player but is an extremely smart and technically sound linebacker. Eichenberg is a middle-round prospect, but like several recent linebackers to come out of Ohio State, there is a good chance we will hear his name for years to come.

[beachcomber]

Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
Wilson and the Texas Tech defensive line were the big reason why the Red Raiders were able to hold TCU to just 13 points before the fourth quarter. TCU eventually pulled away with 21 fourth-quarter points and is now a top-5 team.

In the first quarter against the Horned Frogs, Wilson shed his offensive tackle and flew into the backfield to pick up a tackle for a loss on a third-and-short. That forced a punt and got his defense off the field. Later in the second quarter, the Horned Frogs used Wilson's aggressiveness against him, allowing him to fire up field while the running back darted through the open gap. On the next play, Wilson blew by the offensive tackle and met a teammate at the quarterback to get in on a sack. Late in the third quarter, Wilson had a sack that was called for a facemask on the play. It was really just bad luck, as Wilson had defeated the block from the left tackle to get free and the quarterback ducked his head into Wilson's hand.

Wilson's performance against TCU will should help his draft stock, as he showed the strength to shed blocks, the quickness to close, and an ability to set the edge in the ground game. Wilson displayed a steady motor and played hard on a down-by-down basis. With how he is playing this season, he could end up getting selected on the opening night of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
Versus Florida, Achane kept the Aggies in the game, leading them to all of their points in the first half. On the first play of the game for the Texas A&M offense, Achane reversed field and exploded down the field for a 65-yard gain. Achane finished the drive by cutting back and walking into the end zone with an easy touchdown. Later in the first quarter, Achane added his second touchdown on an outlet pass when he was wide open in the flat. Just before halftime, he scored his third touchdown on a two-yard dive into the end zone.

Achane finished running for 122 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries. He had the receiving touchdown as well. For the NFL, Achane (5-9, 185) is a small, but fast, runner who can rip off big yards on any carry. He could lack the size to be a three-down starter in the NFL, but he should at least be a good platoon back who is a weapon in the passing game.

[beachcomber]

thx for the Brugler bit F21,

11 edge rushers.... 3 OTs
yes, am willing to take the gambit on the RT w/32something inch arms
Bijan goes outside the top ten (good), and compared to Ezekiel Elliott (who went top 5)
not sure Bryan Bresee post ACELla, isn't a better gambit/get than Bijan ??
Michael Mayer is just what we need.... not !! do not want another contested catch receiver who can't gain separation.... a big no thank you
if WR Quentin Johnson is the cream o' the crop of this year's wideouts, am a big pass, as don't think any of 'em are much holding a candle to the top coupla few from last year's stanza
and understand the love for the likes of Darnell Washington, Jaxon Smith Njigba, O'Cyrus Torrence and Antonio Johnson, and.... think we can do better
and love me some Jared Verse and Siaki Ika, and.... just not sure/convinced they are first round talents/locks

[beachcomber]

top 65.... thx again F21

Luke Musgrave is on my watchlist, and Brugler likes him better than Kincaid apparently, and.... you can still sign me up for Kincaid >> athletic pass catcher, creates passing windows (for J Herbo), outstanding focus and ball skills (can catch the ball when thrown to him), and.... has YAC ability.

according to Dane, it'll cost us a second for our TE ??

[Formula 21]

Mock of the day

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[Formula 21]

Quentin Johnston WR TCU | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Overall Rank: #15 Position Rank: #2 (WR)
40 time: 4.40 seconds
Height: 6-4 Weight: 215
Date of Birth: 09/06/2001 Age: 21.2
All TCU Draft prospects

Draft Profile: Bio

Quentin Johnston from Temple High School was a top-100 recruit, he was the third-ranked receiver recruit from Texas (just behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and the second-highest recruit to sign with TCU in 2020 (behind running back Zach Evans).

In 2020 as a freshman Johnston saw action in 9 games for the Horned Frogs as he made 22 receptions for 487 yards for an average of 22.1 yards per reception, with 2 TDs, and a QB rating when targeted of 112.6.

As a sophomore in 2021 he played in 9 games and had 33 catches for 604 yards for an average of 18.3 yards per catch, with 6 TDs, and a QB rating when targeted of 100.7. He received an injury in the seventh game of the season but despite this still led TCU in receiving yards and touchdown catches. He was a 2021 First-Team All-Big 12 selection as a result.

Scouting Report: Strengths

• He’s a precise route runner, creating separation when used on quick outs and stop patterns in college. Johnston has good stop-start ability and lateral agility.
• He’s excellent downfield, accelerating to top speed quickly and stacking on top of cornerbacks. He has excellent body control, contorting to make difficult catches and working well on back-shoulder throws.
• Made Bruce Feldman's Freak's List - ranked #23. He wrote "Johnston, at 6-4, 210, is a remarkable athlete. He has vertical-jumped 42 inches and broad-jumped 11 feet. He’s clocked a 4.4 40 and back-squatted 575 pounds. Despite missing three games in 2021, he still made first-team All-Big 12. Johnston’s 33 catches went for 634 yards and six touchdowns."
• Is a super athletic player who has elite speed combined with an impressive catch radius. Long arms with elite leaping ability
• Could well have the best combination of speed, acceleration, and size of any wideout in the class
• He also proved to be a force in catch-and-run situations. A violent runner who transitions upfield quickly after the catch, Johnston has the speed to pick up chunks of yardage once he’s broken the first tackle.
• He accelerates quickly and possesses good straight-line speed. Johnston shows solid ball-tracking skills and body control downfield, able to adjust to the off-target throw.
• Very good hands accepts the ball fluidly on most throws and is ready to make a play afterward. Makes catches in traffic, even going up over taller defenders with vertical and toughness.
• A savvy, natural pass-catcher with reliable hands and very good focus. Snatches the ball out of the air and shows the concentration to make acrobatic catches look easy.
• He’s equally dangerous in catch-and-run situations as he is taking the top off a defense

Scouting Report: Weaknesses

• Despite his size Johnston is not a dominating blocker and will need to develop his skills to become a complete pro player
• Has only run a limited route tree at TCU - scouts will take notice of the extent he is given a chance to expand this in 2022
• He’ll have to develop a better feel for sitting down against zone coverage.
• Johnston isn’t as good as you expect given his athletic traits on contested catches.
• He also had problems with focus drops when coming back to the action. Johnston has some issues against press coverage, sometimes spending too much time hand fighting at the line of scrimmage.

Scouting Report: Summary

Quentin Johnston has pretty much perfect measurables, standing 6-4 and weighing in at just over 210lbs with legit 4.4 speed. He is currently one of the top WR prospects in the 2023 class although thus far hasn't been as productive as you would have hoped given his athletic profile.

2022 will be massive for Johnston - it could go two possible ways: he could underwhelm and end up a third-round pick or put up a 1000yds and end up a first-round selection.

[Formula 21]

Mock of the day

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[beachcomber]

Julius Brents, DB, Kansas State

The Kansas State defense flexed its muscle last week with a 48-0 shutout of a previously impressive Oklahoma State offense. The Wildcats are led up top by relentless pass rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah, but there are 2023 NFL Draft prospects laying in wait in the secondary for any offense that dares to challenge them.

After snagging an interception against the Cowboys, this week’s matchup with Texas gives defensive back dynamo Julius Brents a further opportunity to impress.

Brents is cut from a similar cloth to former UTSA cornerback Tariq Woolen, the current NFC Defensive Rookie of the Month. He stands at 6’4″, 202 pounds, with a reported 33 ⅞” arm measurement with a 6’10” wingspan.

Like Woolen, the Kansas State cornerback is a twitchy athlete who is explosive out of his breaks and possesses impressive hip fluidity. Furthermore, Brents can elevate himself at the catch point with impressive vertical athleticism.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA

There are few players in college football who are running the rock with the same level of potency as UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet. The former Michigan man averages 7.5 yards per carry so far this season and is on pace to surpass his career-high 1,137 rushing yards of last season. Meanwhile, after finding the end zone three times against Stanford, Charbonnet has double-digit touchdown numbers to his name for the third time in his career.

With Charbonnet, you get exactly what you’d expect from a 6’1″, 220 pounds running back. He’s a tough and physical runner whose ludicrous contact balance helps him to barrel through opposing defenses. Yet, there’s more to him than that.

The UCLA RB has impressive lateral agility that allows him to cut with ease, often reducing his opponents’ ankles to dust in the place Charbonnet used to occupy. An effective pass catcher and blocker, he has an NFL future awaiting him.

Andrew Vorhees, G, USC

With the arrival of Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison, and Mario Williams — not to mention head coach Lincoln Riley — the USC offense has been a unit well worth staying up to watch this season. They have another 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff this week, welcoming California to the Coliseum as they look to keep the heat on UCLA at the top of the Pac-12. While you’re marveling at the array of offensive weaponry on display, make sure you pay attention to one of the Trojans’ top 2023 NFL Draft prospects — guard Andrew Vorhees.

Vorhees is a 6’6″, 325-pound run-game roadblock, who plays the game with incredible physicality and a mauler’s mentality. His sheer size and lower body strength enable him to pass protect with a strong anchor. For his size, however, the USC guard has impressive athleticism, possessing light feet that helped him succeed on an island at left tackle last season. Physical, versatile offensive linemen might not excite late on a Saturday night, but they’re a stable of Sundays, which is exactly where Vorhees is headed next.

[beachcomber]

WR Zay Flowers, Boston College


Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images
The 2023 wide receiver class already has plenty of star power, but Boston College's Zay Flowers made it clear he's a name worth knowing in his 2022 debut.

The 5'10", 172-pound receiver was the entire Boston College offense in a 22-21 loss to Rutgers. He hauled in 10 passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns on a day when quarterback Phil Jurkovec only completed 23 passes and passed for 283 yards.

Flowers is relatively under the radar, but he's caught the attention of NFL scouts after putting up 44 receptions for 746 yards and five touchdowns last season.

"He's the best deep threat in CFB," a scout from an NFC team told Matt Miller of ESPN. "He's undersized and there were some drops last year, but with the QB returning, he'll have a ton more targets."

That scout's quote turned out to be prophetic in Week 1. Flowers showed he's more than just a deep threat. He made a great adjustment on one touchdown reception and showed off his acceleration after the catch on another.

Add in that he had two carries for 16 yards and the diminutive receiver is showing that he has the full tool kit to be a dangerous weapon in an NFL offense.

Teams That Should Take Notice: New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears

[Willogone3]

im starting to see more mocks have stroud falling. 2 sacks and 2 TDs in last 2