2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[wu-dai clan]

Ball of Confusion.

[dmac_bolt]

well done

with the 13th pick the Chargers select from the University of Notre Dame... kidding

I still think it will be Surtain, Horn or LT
Darrisaw might work for me

Please don’t encourage that. Not even if you think its punny.

[Guest]

Christensen may have to move inside, but I think a team would be wise to first give him an opportunity to play the same position he played in college. And then move him if he struggled to widen the pass rusher because his arms were a bit shorter than ideal measurements.

Here is an interesting analysis
It attempted to see if there was a statistically significant difference in performance based on arm length and it could not find any. And what was unexpected is it found that the performance actually went slightly down as the arm length increased.

https://www.pff.com/news/does-arm-length-affect-ot-play

And considering so many other things that can't be measured with with a measuring tape, like effort, awareness, technique, toughness, timing up the block, etc..... That may be why arm length does not have significant correlation to performance.

Guys like Jason Peters, Joe Staley, Joe Thomas all were in the 33 inch range.
A player like Isaiah Wynn plays left tackle pretty well and he is not the typical prototype. 6'3 and 33 arms

I think 33 is enough especially if they have good feet and awareness and are quick off the snap with a good motor.

Clearly DJ Fluker 36.75 arms didn't help him become a quality tackle in the NFL.

Christensen, he is 32.25
so .75 short of hitting that 33 mark. But I think it's a mistake to discount him and say he has to play guard. He is still 6'6 300.

Braden Smith has played right tackle for 3 seasons with Colts and he also has 32.25 arms. He is a pretty good player.

Just think the most important thing is can they play the position at a high level even if they are not prototype.

QBs like Brees and Wilson were drafted lower because of lack of prototype build. Jackson was thought by some to need to change to a WR because of his style of play.

Whatever the position, think what matters most is how well they played it and then give them the opportunity to play it in NFL before switching the position. And in drafting I would not put a prototype build above a player who played it better.

Occasionally, there are exceptions to measurable metrics that NFL teams prefer to go by, but teams should not conduct their drafts with the expectation that a player that does not fit the standard that NFL teams prefer to see will be such an exception. That is poor logic. What makes the exceptions noteworthy is that they are exceptions the rule.

Christensen's arms are the same length as Forrest Lamp's (alligator arms). He is not somehow barely short of the NFL standard of 34+". Guys like Staley and Thomas were barely short (33.5" or better) of 34" with respect to their arm length. So they had one trait that was not quite ideal among many the were. While 1.75" may not seem like much as a number, in NFL OT terms being that far short of the metric represents being nowhere close to what teams hope to see in an OT.

Braden Smith is a RT (not a LT) with tons of strength (bench pressed over 500 pounds in high school). Christensen is athletic, but is slightly smaller and does not possess the same power as Smith.

Similarly, just because there are examples of longer armed prospects that did not do well at OT does not mean that the standard is not there for a reason. The reality is that the vast majority of the top NFL OTs have 34+" arm length. Exceptions prove nothing.

Christensen may turn out to be the best football player ever, but he is a perfect example of a player that should be downgraded at the time of the draft based upon his physical traits. If he is unclaimed on day 3 of the draft, then he might warrant consideration with likely reality that he will be playing OG in the NFL.

[Guest]

Darrisaw or Horn are who I think the targets are at 13
If not, trade back

I agree. Darrisaw and Horn are the likely targets at #13.

[Bolt4Knob]

Please don’t encourage that. Not even if you think its punny.

Come on DMac - you know its going to happen

Not only will Telesco draft at least one player from Notre Dame - maybe not at 13 - but he will. But he will probably overdraft the player or do something stupid like add an extra pick to trade up for Tommy Tremble.

[Guest]

Some NFL teams aren't worried about character... the Chargers are not one of those teams. Hazing and sexual harassment against teammates won't fly in an NFL locker room and probably won't happen again. But at the very least, it shows Parsons to be a shitty teammate... TT and Staley won't like that.

On the football side of things...

Negatives: Instincts run hot and cold. Inefficient getting to the action. Does not drive through tackles. Possesses average ball skills in coverage.

Analysis: Parsons is a tremendous athlete who forces turnovers with big hits and explosiveness. He offers the ability to develop into a three-down defender, but he must polish his instincts and be quicker diagnosing plays rather than relying on sheer athleticism to get to the action. He’s a scheme-versatile linebacker, though I prefer him as a traditional weakside 4-3 outside ‘backer.

I don't mean to suggest that Parsons isn't an elite athlete... he is. But if you watch his tape, a lot of his sacks come from the ILB position... often times untouched. If teams are looking at him as an edge rusher, there's very little tape that suggests he can do that in the NFL. Again, there are flaws with almost any prospect.

I have Parsons as the #3 player overall. He is an absolute stud game changing type player. Inefficient at getting to the action? Parsons' best trait is that he gets to plays with his superior athleticism. Has the ability to develop into a three-down defender? He should never be off of the field when his team is on defense. The guy makes big plays that end opponents' drives.

The reason why Parsons is untouched on a number of his sacks is that he gets to the play so quickly before would be blockers can react to him. He does the same thing on running plays when he gets into the backfield and makes tackles.

And he did line up on the outside for Penn State on occasion with some success. His athleticism gives him considerable versatility. That is part of his overall appeal as a player. I really like the idea of him playing on the defense with James in a sophisticated Staley defense designed to confuse opponents.

Parsons' off field issues have been ridiculously overstated. Just because a guy gets into an altercation with a teammate (when he was 18 or 19 years old after a minor prank) does make that player a "shitty teammate". That is absurd. It was the guy Parsons had the altercation with that pulled a knife on Parsons.

If we did not list Joe Mixon as DND, then there is no way that Parsons would be so characterized.

If he is on the board at #13 overall, which I do not expect, then I hope we draft him.

[Guest]

I don't give a crap about draft pundits player rankings. Running back is the easiest position to fill in the NFL. I also want to ask you how many running backs in college could have put up similar numbers and stats to Etienne whileplaying at Clemson? They've had great weapons to spread teams out, fantastic lineman, great qb play, and stellar defense. they're often head and shoulders better in talent than their opponent.

I think Etienne has a future in the NFL, but I do not get the #10 overall ranking by Zierlein. While Etienne seems to check all of the boxes, I do not see any truly elite traits about him.

What does Etienne do that stands out as being worthy of being a top 10 pick?

[Guest]

I really have a hard time believing that a guy can't play LT if his arms are a fraction less that 34''.
Remember when it was thought that a QB had to be tall to be successful in the NFL? Now, it's been proven over and over that's not true.

The further removed you get from 34", the more of an issue it is. Some of the shorter armed success stories at LT were just barely short (half an inch or less from 34"). Slater is a full inch short and he is a shorter, smaller prospect, so it is not just his arm length. As another poster noted, the list of short armed top level OTs is fairly short. It is not impossible, but it tends not to happen.

There are exceptions, but I question drafting players very early in the draft on the basis that the player will be an exception. To me, Darrisaw is a much safer pick than Slater even though Slater may have the higher ceiling. Darrisaw has all of the desired traits for a top LT. He has the size, athleticism and good production in college.

With there being more good CBs likely available in rounds 1-2 than good OTs, that might be a good reason to take Darrisaw at #13 overall.

[TexanBeerlover]

Ball of Confusion.

Big ole ball.

:stirringshit:

[CivilBolt]

I agree. Darrisaw and Horn are the likely targets at #13.

Funny both JH and Darrisaw’s NFL.com prospect grade are both 6.45 with a long list of negatives :shifty:

[wu-dai clan]

Some of the purveyors of opinions,
labeled as mere "pundits,"
are actually former pro scouts.

They grade prospects according to strict NFL standards,
and often do not try to predict
where particular players will be drafted.

On that note, the Ourlad's Draft Guide will be mailed out tomorrow,
and I will be diligently absorbing its contents.

Warning: some of your favorite prospects are not up to snuff.

:coffee:

[Guest]

Funny both JH and Darrisaw’s NFL.com prospect grade are both 6.45 with a long list of negatives :shifty:

Yeah, that would be the same NFL.com that has Etienne ranked #10 overall and Najee Harris ranked #16 overall. They are good players, but those rankings are crazy. Honestly, NFL.com's rankings kind of seem a little out of whack this year versus how they have been over the years. I am not sure why that is.

The negative things said about Horn are mostly wrong or overblown. The whole "Horn is grabby" penalty thing is hugely overblown. At least one of the penalties called against Horn was completely ridiculous unless applying blanket coverage is suddenly now a penalty. He is going to be very good in the NFL. Also, his hips absolutely do not get "sticky in transition". I think one of the impressive things about Horn is that his hips are elite even at 6'1". He is an incredibly fluid, scrappy, lockdown CB and his production supports that take. He allowed the lowest completion percentage in the SEC. He does not false step. He is a very gifted athlete.

I think the criticism of Darrisaw is more accurate, but the issues are minor technical issues that can be easily coached. There is no major shortcoming that is incapable of being fixed. Again, the natural ability is there as well as the good in game production. I think Darrisaw has been unfairly criticized at least with respect to the degree of the complaints made about his game. He is going to be a good NFL player and one that would help our team a lot.