2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[Boltjolt]

If we trade to #7

#7=1500
#13=1150

#77=205
#97=112..not enough

So offer our 2nd round pick in 2022, that should do it. At least we keep our first and #47 this year.

I think that would land us Sewell but wait til Atlanta trades the pick to a team for a QB or drafts someone themselves and Cinci then picks Chase.. Sewell will be ours.

Don't think Miami wants to move as they traded back up to six for a reason and I think that reason is Pitts.... Or maybe one of Tua's ex WR mates.

[PAnick]

I think a move up to 6 or 7 would get Sewell and especially Slater. Miami is think would take Pitts (if we do to #7)or a WR or Parsons who is sitting there. Not sure how much they want a LT. Tunsil is there. But can get Jenkins at #18 if they want.

#7 is cheaper to get, still may land Sewell as the Vikes can't jump us and we go in front of Carolina, Denver and Dallas. Vikes need a LT or any OT the most of those teams.

Tunsil is where?

[Xenos]

A great combination of lower ceiling plus day one starter...lol.
These diminished traits guys who just get it done have good careers in the NFL.
This guy is sort of a Joe Thomas.

I wouldn’t go that far. His ceiling is Whitworth so there’s potential there. But his closest comp is probably Riley Reiff.

[Xenos]

Tunsil is where?

Yeah, he probably means Jackson who Miami drafted last year.

[Nflballer4life]

Ok gentleman. I do a lot of reading on this forum but rarely ever post. And yet, now, the time has come. Feel this needs to be said.. (cue the drama).

We NEED to trade up for Sewell. Simple as that. Here's why:

1) Our top needs are OT + CB. We will need to hit on drafting starters for these two positions. Every other position we have "good enough" or can get good enough later. For these we need a definitive "hit". How would our team be if we drafted for these positions, but didn't hit? Not such a crazy scenario with TT.. This is the crux of my argument.

2) We have to go OT in the first, since it is not certain we will get a serviceable starting LT in the 2nd. Could an OT fall to us in the 2nd? Maybe. If the cards all line up and we're lucky. Could one of them be a starting LT? Maybe. Even then, none of them are a sure enough option the way Sewell/Slater/Darrisaw are. Is it really worth taking that chance?
This is certainly not the case by CB where there will be good enough starting prospects in the 2nd.

3) If Slater was there at 13, then that would be my ideal choice. Yet, after the Jets-Panthers trade this is no longer a dependable possibility / too big of a risk. We're lucky to have the option of Darrisaw then.

4) Darrisaw, while I consider a strong enough prospect to draft as starting LT for our team, still has question marks imo. Not even everyone sees him as top #3 or #4 OT in the draft. You could argue that he is strong enough to be worth the risk, yet even so he is certainly not great value at #13. For us to take him at #13 this would mean we would have to forego one of the top receivers, who are clearly better prospects. While it'd be tough for me to choose Slater over Waddle - I would be very torn - it's understandable. You would have to be really stupid/desperate to draft Darrisaw over Waddle. In any case, the last thing we want is to select a WR, only to then push our OT/CB needs down one more round. Our chances of finding starters for both LT & CB positions are then slim to none. Remember, every other position we are good enough. In this very likely situation, we're left with either terrible value or not hitting on starters.

5) Slater is a wonderful prospect (might even be better than Sewell in some capacities), but I would never trade up for him. He is not worth giving up picks in this year's draft class.

6) So why don't we trade down?..
And get who? We still have the same issue. Sure you receive good value in terms of picks, but is it really a strong likelihood we will "hit" on a starting LT? And say we do, is that extra pick, really worth giving up for a surefire (let alone potentially generational) talent in Sewell? Honestly, our other needs outside of LT and CB aren't that desperate. Can we get strong talent added to those positions? Sure. But if we don't, we'll still be alright supplementing through rest of the draft / FA.

7) So why not trade down and then trade back up in the first?
The only way I see this as worthwhile is if we draft Darrisaw lower and then come back up in the first for a CB like Farley. That would be a solution that I would certainly get behind. Yet this is not a gameplan you can guarantee. It is a risk and if you're not afforded the opportunity to make both these selections you're screwed. It is not certain that these players will be available. What then? There is no viable/worthwhile-of-risk contingency plan.

8) All in all, if we come away crystal clear that we selected our starting OT and CB for the next 4-5 years (not to mention at least one a home-run pick), for me, we can miss on everything else, and I would still rate this draft as a (good enough) success.

Click here for a recent article examining the cost of trading up for Sewell: https://boltbeat.com/2021/04/05/la-c...-penei-sewell/

I'm happy trading: '21 first, '21 third, '22 first, and even '22 third or fourth '22 to Falcons for #4 and that security.

If we do well this year, those picks won't be as valuable. There is no guarantee we will hit on a premiere, let alone surefire prospect in the mid-late 1st round '22 draft. Secondly, do you really trust TT and crew to hit on all those picks? Thirdly, the cap will be going up in the coming years, making FA more of an option to round out our team rather than needing to rely on draft moreso to save space. We have the luxury of having a rookie qb contract allowing us to do this even more.

The opportunity is now! #boltup

[Boltjolt]

Tunsil is where?

Ugh.. Sorry, meant Austin Jackson lol. Got the names mixed up.

[wu-dai clan]

I wouldn’t go that far. His ceiling is Whitworth so there’s potential there. But his closest comp is probably Riley Reiff.

LOL.
I did say sorta.

[Bolt Dude]

Ok gentleman. I do a lot of reading on this forum but rarely ever post. And yet, now, the time has come. Feel this needs to be said.. (cue the drama).

We NEED to trade up for Sewell. Simple as that. Here's why:

1) Our top needs are OT + CB. We will need to hit on drafting starters for these two positions. Every other position we have "good enough" or can get good enough later. For these we need a definitive "hit". How would our team be if we drafted for these positions, but didn't hit? Not such a crazy scenario with TT.. This is the crux of my argument.

2) We have to go OT in the first, since it is not certain we will get a serviceable starting LT in the 2nd. Could an OT fall to us in the 2nd? Maybe. If the cards all line up and we're lucky. Could one of them be a starting LT? Maybe. Even then, none of them are a sure enough option the way Sewell/Slater/Darrisaw are. Is it really worth taking that chance?
This is certainly not the case by CB where there will be good enough starting prospects in the 2nd.

3) If Slater was there at 13, then that would be my ideal choice. Yet, after the Jets-Panthers trade this is no longer a dependable possibility / too big of a risk. We're lucky to have the option of Darrisaw then.

4) Darrisaw, while I consider a strong enough prospect to draft as starting LT for our team, still has question marks imo. Not even everyone sees him as top #3 or #4 OT in the draft. You could argue that he is strong enough to be worth the risk, yet even so he is certainly not great value at #13. For us to take him at #13 this would mean we would have to forego one of the top receivers, who are clearly better prospects. While it'd be tough for me to choose Slater over Waddle - I would be very torn - it's understandable. You would have to be really stupid/desperate to draft Darrisaw over Waddle. In any case, the last thing we want is to select a WR, only to then push our OT/CB needs down one more round. Our chances of finding starters for both LT & CB positions are then slim to none. Remember, every other position we are good enough. In this very likely situation, we're left with either terrible value or not hitting on starters.

5) Slater is a wonderful prospect (might even be better than Sewell in some capacities), but I would never trade up for him. He is not worth giving up picks in this year's draft class.

6) So why don't we trade down?..
And get who? We still have the same issue. Sure you receive good value in terms of picks, but is it really a strong likelihood we will "hit" on a starting LT? And say we do, is that extra pick, really worth giving up for a surefire (let alone potentially generational) talent in Sewell? Honestly, our other needs outside of LT and CB aren't that desperate. Can we get strong talent added to those positions? Sure. But if we don't, we'll still be alright supplementing through rest of the draft / FA.

7) So why not trade down and then trade back up in the first?
The only way I see this as worthwhile is if we draft Darrisaw lower and then come back up in the first for a CB like Farley. That would be a solution that I would certainly get behind. Yet this is not a gameplan you can guarantee. It is a risk and if you're not afforded the opportunity to make both these selections you're screwed. It is not certain that these players will be available. What then? There is no viable/worthwhile-of-risk contingency plan.

8) All in all, if we come away crystal clear that we selected our starting OT and CB for the next 4-5 years (not to mention at least one a home-run pick), for me, we can miss on everything else, and I would still rate this draft as a (good enough) success.

Click here for a recent article examining the cost of trading up for Sewell: https://boltbeat.com/2021/04/05/la-c...-penei-sewell/

I'm happy trading: '21 first, '21 third, '22 first, and even '22 third or fourth '22 to Falcons for #4 and that security.

If we do well this year, those picks won't be as valuable. There is no guarantee we will hit on a premiere, let alone surefire prospect in the mid-late 1st round '22 draft. Secondly, do you really trust TT and crew to hit on all those picks? Thirdly, the cap will be going up in the coming years, making FA more of an option to round out our team rather than needing to rely on draft moreso to save space. We have the luxury of having a rookie qb contract allowing us to do this even more.

The opportunity is now! #boltup

Hey welcome. Nice first post.

The argument for trading up for Penei is a strong one, I’ll give you that. But realistically, I don’t see too much downside in Darrisaw or Jenkins if Slater’s off the board. One of the main reasons is that, having studied the draft for 2 decades, this year’s is one of the deepest and strongest I’ve ever seen. I’d hate to give up too many picks. As TT likes to say, “the more at bats the better.”

That being said, if we can trade minimal picks this year and keep it to future picks, I’d be on board with that 100%.

I also think there’s a strong possibility that the Bengals are targeting Chase, so a trade to #4 might be overkill. The trade with Detroit seems like the deal to be made, but it wouldn’t go down until draft day. Once Penei slips past #5 TT should be on the phone, guns blazing.

[like54ninjas]

I don't promote this but... Chargers #13 and next year's 1st rounder should be enough compensation.

The logic being... you'd have your Big-3 (QB, DE, OT) and wouldn't need a 1st rounder next year.
It would be logical for Atlanta, too. Ryan has a lot of guaranteed money this year, and next.
With 2 first round picks, they could move up in next year's draft to get a future starting QB... and a year to sit and learn.

Who would Atlanta want with the #13...?

Edge or WR most likely.

[like54ninjas]

If we trade #13, #47, and a 2022 R1 for #4, I can (realistically) see this year’s draft going like...

4–Penei Sewell, T
77–Pauson Adebo, CB
97–Elerson Smith, EDGE
118–Tanaloa Hufanga, S
159–John Bates, TE
185–Robert Jones, G
198–Tommy Doyle, OT
241–Avery Williams, NCB, ST

Not too shabby.

Love it.
Still going to have a pretty deep roster.
Glass of kool-aid?

[like54ninjas]

Ok gentleman. I do a lot of reading on this forum but rarely ever post. And yet, now, the time has come. Feel this needs to be said.. (cue the drama).

We NEED to trade up for Sewell. Simple as that. Here's why:

1) Our top needs are OT + CB. We will need to hit on drafting starters for these two positions. Every other position we have "good enough" or can get good enough later. For these we need a definitive "hit". How would our team be if we drafted for these positions, but didn't hit? Not such a crazy scenario with TT.. This is the crux of my argument.

2) We have to go OT in the first, since it is not certain we will get a serviceable starting LT in the 2nd. Could an OT fall to us in the 2nd? Maybe. If the cards all line up and we're lucky. Could one of them be a starting LT? Maybe. Even then, none of them are a sure enough option the way Sewell/Slater/Darrisaw are. Is it really worth taking that chance?
This is certainly not the case by CB where there will be good enough starting prospects in the 2nd.

3) If Slater was there at 13, then that would be my ideal choice. Yet, after the Jets-Panthers trade this is no longer a dependable possibility / too big of a risk. We're lucky to have the option of Darrisaw then.

4) Darrisaw, while I consider a strong enough prospect to draft as starting LT for our team, still has question marks imo. Not even everyone sees him as top #3 or #4 OT in the draft. You could argue that he is strong enough to be worth the risk, yet even so he is certainly not great value at #13. For us to take him at #13 this would mean we would have to forego one of the top receivers, who are clearly better prospects. While it'd be tough for me to choose Slater over Waddle - I would be very torn - it's understandable. You would have to be really stupid/desperate to draft Darrisaw over Waddle. In any case, the last thing we want is to select a WR, only to then push our OT/CB needs down one more round. Our chances of finding starters for both LT & CB positions are then slim to none. Remember, every other position we are good enough. In this very likely situation, we're left with either terrible value or not hitting on starters.

5) Slater is a wonderful prospect (might even be better than Sewell in some capacities), but I would never trade up for him. He is not worth giving up picks in this year's draft class.

6) So why don't we trade down?..
And get who? We still have the same issue. Sure you receive good value in terms of picks, but is it really a strong likelihood we will "hit" on a starting LT? And say we do, is that extra pick, really worth giving up for a surefire (let alone potentially generational) talent in Sewell? Honestly, our other needs outside of LT and CB aren't that desperate. Can we get strong talent added to those positions? Sure. But if we don't, we'll still be alright supplementing through rest of the draft / FA.

7) So why not trade down and then trade back up in the first?
The only way I see this as worthwhile is if we draft Darrisaw lower and then come back up in the first for a CB like Farley. That would be a solution that I would certainly get behind. Yet this is not a gameplan you can guarantee. It is a risk and if you're not afforded the opportunity to make both these selections you're screwed. It is not certain that these players will be available. What then? There is no viable/worthwhile-of-risk contingency plan.

8) All in all, if we come away crystal clear that we selected our starting OT and CB for the next 4-5 years (not to mention at least one a home-run pick), for me, we can miss on everything else, and I would still rate this draft as a (good enough) success.

Click here for a recent article examining the cost of trading up for Sewell: https://boltbeat.com/2021/04/05/la-c...-penei-sewell/

I'm happy trading: '21 first, '21 third, '22 first, and even '22 third or fourth '22 to Falcons for #4 and that security.

If we do well this year, those picks won't be as valuable. There is no guarantee we will hit on a premiere, let alone surefire prospect in the mid-late 1st round '22 draft. Secondly, do you really trust TT and crew to hit on all those picks? Thirdly, the cap will be going up in the coming years, making FA more of an option to round out our team rather than needing to rely on draft moreso to save space. We have the luxury of having a rookie qb contract allowing us to do this even more.

The opportunity is now! #boltup

A big welcome sent your way!
Outstanding first post.
Sewell is the answer to our OLT question.

[Bolt Dude]

Love it.
Still going to have a pretty deep roster.
Glass of kool-aid?

If that’s our draft I’ll drink kool-aid with vodka, and I don’t even drink. Might need a few bong hits just to settle down.

Of course I’d also be happy with:

4. Sewell
77. Janarius Robinson
97. Cisco
118. St-Juste
159. Hainsey
185. Ball
198. Davidson
241. Stuard

Theres a lot of good combos to be had.